College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Troy vs. Appalachian State 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Troy visits Appalachian State on 11/28/2020 at 3:30PM.

Troy and Appalachian State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Troy has a record of 4-4 this season. Appalachian State is 6-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Troy Team Defense Preview

Troy has had 95 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.6 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Troy has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Troy opponents pass the football 46.80% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Troy is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Troy can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.74 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Troy is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Troy Team Offense Preview

Troy has had 93 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.69 plays per drive. Troy runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Troy is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Troy passes the football 64.27% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Troy struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Troy can take credit for 2.72 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Troy Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Troy is a better passing team than running team this season.

Appalachian State Team Defense Preview

Appalachian State has had 83 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.7 plays per drive. Appalachian State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Appalachian State opponents pass the football 50.53% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Appalachian State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.8 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Appalachian State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Appalachian State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Appalachian State Team Offense Preview

Appalachian State has had 85 total drives this season and they generate 6.18 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Appalachian State. Appalachian State has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Appalachian State passes the football 39.43% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Appalachian State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Appalachian State can take credit for 3.21 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Appalachian State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Appalachian State has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Appalachian State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Troy Roster

The Players to Watch for Troy

Gunnar Watson QB 6-3 208

This season, Gunnar Watson has put up 1459 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 141.8thus far this season. Gunnar Watson has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Gunnar Watson has -72.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.98 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 24.0 times this season, which puts him in the 66.89 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Kimani Vidal RB 5-8 214

This season, Kimani Vidal has 364 rushing yards on 58 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Kimani Vidal picked up 100 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kaylon Geiger WR 5-10 170

This season, Kaylon Geiger picked up 557 yards. He caught the ball 45 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Will Choloh Jr. DT 6-0 289

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Will Choloh Jr. has 29 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 97.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 98.12 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Antonio Showers DE 6-1 279

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Antonio Showers has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 51.58 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Dell Pettus S 5-11 196.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Dell Pettus had 45 tackles which puts him in the 95.74 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Dell Pettus as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Terence Dunlap CB 5-11 175

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Terence Dunlap had 22 tackles which puts him in the 84.71 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 78.9 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Terence Dunlap as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 98.32 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Appalachian State Roster

The Players to Watch for Appalachian State

Zac Thomas QB 6-1 210

This season, Zac Thomas has put up 1496 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has thrown 8 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 143.1thus far this season. Zac Thomas has thrown 8 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Zac Thomas has 255.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 91.48 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 62.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.85 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Daetrich Harrington RB 6-0 190

This season, Daetrich Harrington has 595 rushing yards on 106 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Daetrich Harrington picked up 15 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 2 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Thomas Hennigan WR 6-1 210

This season, Thomas Hennigan picked up 407 yards. He caught the ball 27 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Demetrius Taylor DL 6-1 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Appalachian State, Demetrius Taylor has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 11 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.52 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 6 times this season, which put him in the 98.57 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 2 fumbles this season.

Kaiden Smith DB 6-1 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Appalachian State, Kaiden Smith had 40 tackles which puts him in the 93.46 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kaiden Smith as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Troy vs. Appalachian State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Troy 22 Appalachian State 29

Spread Pick: Troy +14 -108 Heritage
Moneyline Pick: Appalachian State -500 5Dimes
Total Pick: Over 48 -115 Bookmaker