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Troy vs. Georgia Southern 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Troy visits Georgia Southern on 11/7/2020 at 1:00PM.

Troy and Georgia Southern face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Troy has a record of 4-2 this season. Georgia Southern is 4-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Troy Team Defense Preview

Troy has had 71 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.45 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Troy opponents pass the football 53.75% of the time.Troy tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Troy is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Troy can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.58 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Troy has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Troy Team Offense Preview

Troy has had 71 total drives this season and they generate 5.73 plays per drive. Troy runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Troy is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Troy passes the football 62.16% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Troy struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.8 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Troy Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Troy is a better passing team than running team this season.

Georgia Southern Team Defense Preview

Georgia Southern has had 64 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.23 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Georgia Southern opponents pass the football 54.93% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Georgia Southern opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Georgia Southern can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.45 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Georgia Southern has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Georgia Southern Team Offense Preview

Georgia Southern has had 59 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Georgia Southern has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 26.06% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Georgia Southern can take credit for 3.35 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Georgia Southern this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Georgia Southern has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Troy Roster

The Players to Watch for Troy

Gunnar Watson QB 6-3 208

This season, Gunnar Watson has put up 1159 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 145.3thus far this season. Gunnar Watson has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Gunnar Watson has -47.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 2.55 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 21.0 times this season, which puts him in the 68.24 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Kimani Vidal RB 5-8 214

This season, Kimani Vidal has 354 rushing yards on 53 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Kimani Vidal picked up 100 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kaylon Geiger WR 5-10 170

This season, Kaylon Geiger picked up 474 yards. He caught the ball 35 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Will Choloh Jr. DT 6-0 289

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Will Choloh Jr. has 19 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.09 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 94.26 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Devon Reaves DE 6-4 259

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Devon Reaves has 10 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 74.03 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.46 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Dell Pettus S 5-11 196

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Dell Pettus had 31 tackles which puts him in the 92.02 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.61 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Dell Pettus as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Levon Fletcher CB 5-11 171

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Levon Fletcher had 18 tackles which puts him in the 87.17 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.55 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Levon Fletcher as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.66 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Georgia Southern Roster

The Players to Watch for Georgia Southern

Shai Werts QB 5-11 205

This season, Shai Werts has put up 654 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 129.4thus far this season. Shai Werts has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Shai Werts has 424.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 99.22 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 74.0 times this season, which puts him in the 98.82 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

J.D. King RB 5-11 220

This season, J.D. King has 564 rushing yards on 102 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, J.D. King picked up 4 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 2 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Malik Murray WR 6-0 180

This season, Malik Murray picked up 177 yards. He caught the ball 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

C.J. Wright NT 6-0 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Georgia Southern, C.J. Wright has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 36.61 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Raymond Johnson III DE 6-3 270

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Georgia Southern, Raymond Johnson III has 11 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 94.4 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 97.48 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Java’n Singletary S 6-0 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Georgia Southern, Java’n Singletary had 21 tackles which puts him in the 80.15 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.61 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Java’n Singletary as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Derrick Canteen CB 5-11 185

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Georgia Southern, Derrick Canteen had 23 tackles which puts him in the 95.17 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.55 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Derrick Canteen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Troy vs. Georgia Southern Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Troy 31 Georgia Southern 23

Spread Pick: Troy -3 -110 YouWager
Moneyline Pick: Troy -157 matchbook
Total Pick: Over 52 -108 5Dimes