College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Troy vs. South Alabama 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Troy visits South Alabama on 12/5/2020 at 2:00PM.

Troy and South Alabama face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Troy has a record of 4-5 this season. South Alabama is 4-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Troy Team Defense Preview

Troy has had 102 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.75 plays per drive. Troy lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Troy has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 47.27% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Troy is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.85 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Troy is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Troy Team Offense Preview

Troy has had 101 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.56 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Troy is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Troy passes the football 63.70% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Troy struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.72 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Troy Offense. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Troy is a better passing team than running team this season.

South Alabama Team Defense Preview

South Alabama has had 112 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.61 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. South Alabama has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 44.59% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

South Alabama is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? South Alabama can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.84 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. South Alabama is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

South Alabama Team Offense Preview

South Alabama has had 111 total drives this season and they generate 5.98 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to South Alabama. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 49.85% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

South Alabama struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. South Alabama can take credit for 2.4 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the South Alabama Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. South Alabama is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Troy Roster

The Players to Watch for Troy

Gunnar Watson QB 6-3 208

This season, Gunnar Watson has put up 1584 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 140.2thus far this season. Gunnar Watson has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Gunnar Watson has -72.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.95 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 24.0 times this season, which puts him in the 64.13 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Kimani Vidal RB 5-8 214

This season, Kimani Vidal has 364 rushing yards on 58 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Kimani Vidal picked up 100 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kaylon Geiger WR 5-10 170

This season, Kaylon Geiger picked up 598 yards. He caught the ball 48 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Will Choloh Jr. DT 6-0 289

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Will Choloh Jr. has 32 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 96.56 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 97.94 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Antonio Showers DE 6-1 279

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Troy, Antonio Showers has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 49.74 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 68.5 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Dell Pettus S 5-11 196.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Dell Pettus had 54 tackles which puts him in the 96.89 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 73.47 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Dell Pettus as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Levon Fletcher CB 5-11 171

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Troy, Levon Fletcher had 25 tackles which puts him in the 88.71 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Levon Fletcher as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

The South Alabama Roster

The Players to Watch for South Alabama

Desmond Trotter QB 6-3 200

This season, Desmond Trotter has put up 1773 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 147.4thus far this season. Desmond Trotter has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Desmond Trotter has 27.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 53.97 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 74.0 times this season, which puts him in the 91.9 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Carlos Davis RB 5-10 205

This season, Carlos Davis has 673 rushing yards on 160 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Carlos Davis picked up 104 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jalen Tolbert WR 6-3 195

This season, Jalen Tolbert picked up 993 yards. He caught the ball 59 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jeremiah Littles DL 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for South Alabama, Jeremiah Littles has 28 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 92.0 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 90.49 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Keith Gallmon S 5-9 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for South Alabama, Keith Gallmon had 81 tackles which puts him in the 99.82 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 73.47 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Keith Gallmon as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Darrell Luter Jr. CB 6-0 175

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for South Alabama, Darrell Luter Jr. had 27 tackles which puts him in the 90.91 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Darrell Luter Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Troy 32 South Alabama 20

Spread Pick: Troy -4.5 -112 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Troy -185 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 54.5 -118 Pinnacle Sports