College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Tulsa vs. Navy 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Tulsa visits Navy on 12/5/2020 at 3:30PM.

Tulsa and Navy face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Tulsa has a record of 5-1 this season. Navy is 3-5 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Tulsa Team Defense Preview

Tulsa has had 79 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.11 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Tulsa is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 49.50% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Tulsa opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.56 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Tulsa is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Tulsa Team Offense Preview

Tulsa has had 79 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.29 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Tulsa is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Tulsa passes the football 49.76% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Tulsa is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Tulsa can take credit for 2.87 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Tulsa Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Tulsa is a better passing team than running team this season.

Navy Team Defense Preview

Navy has had 79 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.89 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Navy cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Navy has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 41.94% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Navy can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.34 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Navy has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Navy Team Offense Preview

Navy has had 83 total drives this season and they generate 5.13 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Navy is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Navy passes the football 24.18% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Navy has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.72 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Navy this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Navy is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Tulsa Roster

The Players to Watch for Tulsa

Zach Smith QB 6-3 227

This season, Zach Smith has put up 1267 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 139.2thus far this season. Zach Smith has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Zach Smith has -43.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 3.49 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 22.0 times this season, which puts him in the 61.11 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Deneric Prince RB 6-1 214

This season, Deneric Prince has 356 rushing yards on 70 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Deneric Prince picked up 11 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Keylon Stokes WR 6-0 194

This season, Keylon Stokes picked up 446 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Anthony Goodlow DL 6-5 256

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Tulsa, Anthony Goodlow has 25 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 83.63 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 90.49 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kendarin Ray S 6-4 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Tulsa, Kendarin Ray had 45 tackles which puts him in the 94.18 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 73.47 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Kendarin Ray as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Allie Green IV CB 6-3 206

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Tulsa, Allie Green IV had 20 tackles which puts him in the 77.27 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 78.74 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Allie Green IV as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 82.99 percentile among Corners this season.

The Navy Roster

The Players to Watch for Navy

Dalen Morris QB 6-1 206

This season, Dalen Morris has put up 570 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 143.0thus far this season. Dalen Morris has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Dalen Morris has 56.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 65.08 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 65.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.57 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mychal Cooper WR 6-5 221

This season, Mychal Cooper picked up 199 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jackson Perkins DT 6-6 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Navy, Jackson Perkins has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.72 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jay Warren DE 6-1 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Navy, Jay Warren has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 49.74 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 68.5 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Kevin Brennan S 5-11 199.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Navy, Kevin Brennan had 56 tackles which puts him in the 97.37 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 32.62 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Kevin Brennan as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Michael McMorris CB 5-9 166

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Navy, Michael McMorris had 33 tackles which puts him in the 95.45 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Michael McMorris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

Tulsa vs. Navy Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Tulsa 35 Navy 21

Spread Pick: Tulsa -11.5 -110 WagerWeb
Moneyline Pick: Tulsa -436 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Over 48 -116 Pinnacle Sports