College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

UCF vs. Louisville 9/17/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

UCF visits Louisville on 9/17/2021 at 7:30PM.

UCF and Louisville face off in a regular season matchup. Games are on campuses and crowds are full once again! UCF sports a record of 2-0 this season. Louisville is 1-1 this season. Enough preamble… Let’s get to the preview…



UCF Team Defense Preview

UCF has had 24 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.33 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Third and long situations are common against this season ‘s defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. UCF opponents passes the football 68.75% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

UCF opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 0.46 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have had been simply unable to support their running games against their defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have had shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. UCF is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

UCF Team Offense Preview

UCF has had 25 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.84 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to UCF. Any defense is in for a challenge with UCF, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.UCF passes the football 49.12% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this season offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. UCF can take credit for 3.96 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box is not enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. With a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, breakout rushing plays are possible, but it is not something to count on from them.

UCF bullied and controlled defenses this season , defenses are not to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. UCF is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. In order to stop this offense, it requires opposing defenses to need secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for the offense to be disrupted. UCF is a better running team than passing team this season .

Louisville Team Defense Preview

Louisville has had 23 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.35 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Louisville has had shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Louisville opponents passes the football 52.03% of the time.Opponents typically have had some form of run/pass balance against them.

Louisville is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Louisville can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.31 yards per carry. Their defense gives offensive lines too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect them to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Their front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Louisville has had shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season .

Louisville Team Offense Preview

Louisville has had 20 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.8 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Louisville. Louisville is an average offense as far as staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Louisville passes the football 47.06% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Louisville is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.34 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this season ‘s team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Louisville this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Louisville is a better running team than passing team this season .

The UCF Roster

The Players to Watch for UCF

Dillon Gabriel QB 6’0″ 186 Junior

Last season, Dillon Gabriel put up 630 yards, tossed 6 touchdowns, and he threw 2 interceptions. He threw deep and medium passes to receivers more often than not. His average completed pass was 8.6 yards. He was considered one of the most mobile Quarterbacks in the country last season, designed runs and zone read looks are common. His average rush was 7.6 yards.

Isaiah Bowser RB 6’1″ 215 Junior

Last season, Isaiah Bowser had 229 rushing yards on 44 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 5 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 5.2 yards. He is a consistent option in the passing game considering that he is a running back. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 5.2 yards.

Jaylon Robinson WR 5’9″ 163 Junior

Last season, Jaylon Robinson picked up 187 yards through the air. He caught the ball 8 times last season. He reached the end zone 1 times. He is a go-to in the passing game. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 23.4 yards.

Ricky Barber DT 6’3″ 290 Freshman

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UCF, Ricky Barber, had 8 tackles last season. Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 2 tackles for loss last season. He had 0 sacks last season.

Kalia Davis DL 6’2″ 285 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UCF, Kalia Davis, had 8 tackles last season. Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 3 tackles for loss last season. He had 0 sacks last season.

Quadric Bullard DB 6’0″ 165 Sophomore

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for UCF, Quadric Bullard, had 16 tackles last season. He forced 0 tackles for loss last season. He had 0.0 sacks last season.

The Louisville Roster

The Players to Watch for Louisville

Micale Cunningham QB 6’1″ 200 Junior

Last season, Micale Cunningham put up 374 yards, tossed 2 touchdowns, and he threw 1 interceptions. He threw a variety of different length passes. His average completed pass was 6.2 yards. He was considered one of the most mobile Quarterbacks in the country last season, designed runs and zone read looks are common. His average rush was 3.7 yards.

Jalen Mitchell RB 5’10” 221 Freshman

Last season, Jalen Mitchell had 139 rushing yards on 30 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 0 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 4.6 yards. He is a consistent option in the passing game considering that he is a running back. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 4.6 yards.

Josh Johnson WR 5’11” 187 Senior

Last season, Josh Johnson picked up 81 yards through the air. He caught the ball 8 times last season. He reached the end zone 0 times. He is a go-to in the passing game. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 10.1 yards.

Ashton Gillotte DL 6’2″ 212 Freshman

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Louisville, Ashton Gillotte, had 3 tackles last season. Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 2 tackles for loss last season. He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 1 sacks last season.

Greedy Vance DB 5’10” 155 Freshman

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Louisville, Greedy Vance, had 6 tackles last season. He forced 0 tackles for loss last season. He had 0.0 sacks last season.

Kei’Trel Clark CB 5’10” 165 Sophomore

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Louisville, Kei’Trel Clark, had 12 tackles last season. Among Cornerbacks, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 2 tackles for loss last season. He was among the best at picking off passes, he had 2.0 interceptions last season. Lockdown corner.

UCF vs. Louisville Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: UCF 16 Louisville 33

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Moneyline Pick: Louisville +240 BetAnySports
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