College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

UCF vs. South Florida 11/27/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The UCF visits South Florida on 11/27/2020 at 3:30PM.

UCF and South Florida face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. UCF has a record of 5-3 this season. South Florida is 1-7 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

UCF Team Defense Preview

UCF has had 103 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.13 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, UCF is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. UCF has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. UCF opponents pass the football 47.92% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

UCF opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.69 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!UCF is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

UCF Team Offense Preview

UCF has had 103 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.01 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to UCF. UCF has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. UCF passes the football 52.18% of the time.UCF tends to pass more than other teams.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, UCF has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. UCF can take credit for 3.15 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The UCF coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against UCF this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. UCF has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

South Florida Team Defense Preview

South Florida has had 76 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.68 plays per drive. South Florida lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. South Florida has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 43.98% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

South Florida is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? South Florida can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.9 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. South Florida is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

South Florida Team Offense Preview

South Florida has had 78 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.65 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, South Florida is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. South Florida passes the football 48.76% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

South Florida struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.74 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the South Florida Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. South Florida has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The UCF Roster

The Players to Watch for UCF

Dillon Gabriel QB 6-0 186

This season, Dillon Gabriel has put up 3017 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 162.1thus far this season. Dillon Gabriel has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Dillon Gabriel has 136.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 84.59 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 63.0 times this season, which puts him in the 89.34 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Otis Anderson RB 5-11 174

This season, Otis Anderson has 614 rushing yards on 109 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Otis Anderson picked up 68 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marlon Williams WR 6-0 215

This season, Marlon Williams picked up 1039 yards. He caught the ball 71 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 10 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tre’mon Morris-Brash DL 6-2 235

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UCF, Tre’mon Morris-Brash has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Richie Grant DB 6-0 194.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for UCF, Richie Grant had 65 tackles which puts him in the 99.19 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 97.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Richie Grant as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 98.79 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The South Florida Roster

The Players to Watch for South Florida

Jordan McCloud QB 6-0 193

This season, Jordan McCloud has put up 937 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 121.1thus far this season. Jordan McCloud has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jordan McCloud has 67.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 70.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 49.0 times this season, which puts him in the 85.08 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Johnny Ford RB 5-5 172

This season, Johnny Ford has 285 rushing yards on 55 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Johnny Ford picked up 125 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Omarion Dollison WR 5-9 180

This season, Omarion Dollison picked up 249 yards. He caught the ball 19 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Thad Mangum DT 6-2 285

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for South Florida, Thad Mangum has 31 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.08 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Rashawn Yates DL 6-3 271

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for South Florida, Rashawn Yates has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Nick Roberts DB 5-11 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for South Florida, Nick Roberts had 39 tackles which puts him in the 92.83 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Nick Roberts as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Ben Knox CB 6-2 185

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for South Florida, Ben Knox had 1 tackles which puts him in the 7.8 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Ben Knox as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

UCF vs. South Florida Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: UCF 39 South Florida 16

Spread Pick: South Florida +26 -110 BetOnline
Moneyline Pick: UCF -1450 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 69.5 -107 5Dimes