College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Utah State vs. UNLV 10/16/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

Utah State visits UNLV on 10/16/2021 at 7:00PM.

Utah State and UNLV face off in a regular season matchup. Games are on campuses and crowds are full once again! Utah State sports a record of 3-2 this season. UNLV is 0-5 this season. Enough preamble… Let’s get to the preview…



Utah State Team Defense Preview

Utah State has had 60 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.63 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Utah State has had shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays are 47.63% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have had some form of run/pass balance against them.

Utah State opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Utah State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.96 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Utah State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

Utah State Team Offense Preview

Utah State has had 61 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.38 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Utah State. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays are 52.44% of their play calls.Utah State passes more than other teams.

Utah State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Utah State can take credit for 2.77 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has had been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Utah State Offense. Utah State is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. In order to stop this offense, it requires opposing defenses to need secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for the offense to be disrupted. Utah State is a better passing team than running team this season .

UNLV Team Defense Preview

UNLV has had 36 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.89 plays per drive. UNLV’s opponents run a lot of plays per drive and this leads to fatigue in the Fourth Quarter. Offensive Coordinators have had no trouble with this season defense, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads onUNLVmessage boards are flights of fantasy. UNLV opponents passes the football 48.58% of the time.Opponents typically have had some form of run/pass balance against them.

UNLV is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.93 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have had shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Their front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. UNLV is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

UNLV Team Offense Preview

UNLV has had 36 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.06 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, UNLV is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. UNLV passes the football 54.95% of the time.UNLV passes more than other teams.

UNLV is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. UNLV can take credit for 2.85 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has had been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. With a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, breakout rushing plays are possible, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses are able to impose their will on the UNLV Offense this season . Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. UNLV is a better running team than passing team this season .

The Utah State Roster

The Players to Watch for Utah State

Logan Bonner QB 6’1″ 230 Junior

Logan Bonner put up 1235 yards, tossed 9 touchdowns, and he threw 6 interceptions this season. He threw deep and medium passes to receivers more often than not. His average completed pass was 7.9 yards. The zone read is a common part of the offense and mobility is used as part of the offense, but not necessarily the focus of the offense. His average rush was 1.4 yards.

Calvin Tyler Jr. RB 5’8″ 215 Junior

Calvin Tyler Jr. had 411 rushing yards on 78 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 4 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 5.3 yards. He was relied upon as a receiver in their offense this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 5.3 yards.

Deven Thompkins WR 5’7″ 160 Junior

Deven Thompkins picked up 639 yards through the air. He caught the ball 38 times this season. He reached the end zone 4 times. He is a go-to in the passing game. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 16.8 yards.

Marcus Moore DT 6’3″ 280 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Utah State, Marcus Moore, had 17 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was a non-factor as far as sacking Quarterbacks was concerned this season.

Nick Heninger DE 6’2″ 230 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Utah State, Nick Heninger, had 26 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 5 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 2 sacks this season.

Hunter Reynolds S 6’0″ 192 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Utah State, Hunter Reynolds, had 25 tackles this season.Among Defensive Backs, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 2 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 sacks this season.

Cam Lampkin CB 5’9″ 170 Sophomore

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Utah State, Cam Lampkin, had 18 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 pick-offs this season.

The UNLV Roster

The Players to Watch for UNLV

Cameron Friel QB 6’3″ 220 Freshman

Cameron Friel put up 512 yards, tossed 1 touchdowns, and he threw 3 interceptions. He threw deep and medium passes to receivers more often than not. His average completed pass was 7.9 yards. His mobility and the staff’s willingness to use it for the purposes of generating yardage is average. His average rush was -3.0 yards.

Charles Williams RB 5’9″ 200 Senior

Charles Williams had 399 rushing yards on 93 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 3 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 4.3 yards. He was relied upon as a receiver in their offense this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 4.3 yards.

Steve Jenkins WR 6’0″ 165 Sophomore

Steve Jenkins picked up 217 yards through the air. He caught the ball 14 times this season. He reached the end zone 2 times. He was a consistent option in the passing game this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 15.5 yards.

Kolo Uasike DL 6’0″ 305 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UNLV, Kolo Uasike, had 17 tackles this season.He forced 1 tackles for loss this season.He was a non-factor as far as sacking Quarterbacks was concerned this season.

Bryce Jackson DB 5’9″ 190 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for UNLV, Bryce Jackson, had 34 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 sacks this season.

Utah State vs. UNLV Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Utah State 35 UNLV 24

Spread Pick: Utah State -7 -115 BetOnline Get Up to a Grand in Your Hand Now!
Moneyline Pick: Utah State -265 BetAnySports
Under Pick: Under 62.5 -110 BetOnline Get Up to a Grand in Your Hand Now!