College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

UTSA vs. Southern Miss 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The UTSA visits Southern Miss on 11/21/2020 at 3:00PM.

UTSA and Southern Miss face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. UTSA has a record of 5-4 this season. Southern Miss is 2-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

UTSA Team Defense Preview

UTSA has had 98 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, UTSA is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. UTSA has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 48.13% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

UTSA opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.71 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

UTSA has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. UTSA should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. UTSA has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

UTSA Team Offense Preview

UTSA has had 100 total drives this season and they generate 5.64 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. UTSA passes the football 48.40% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

UTSA is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. UTSA can take credit for 2.92 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the UTSA Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. UTSA is a better passing team than running team this season.

Southern Miss Team Defense Preview

Southern Miss has had 88 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.86 plays per drive. Southern Miss lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Southern Miss has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Southern Miss opponents pass the football 47.48% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.02 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Southern Miss is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Southern Miss Team Offense Preview

Southern Miss has had 88 total drives this season and they generate 5.38 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Southern Miss is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Southern Miss passes the football 46.51% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Southern Miss is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Southern Miss can take credit for 2.92 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Southern Miss Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Southern Miss has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The UTSA Roster

The Players to Watch for UTSA

Frank Harris QB 6-0 200

This season, Frank Harris has put up 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 124.5thus far this season. Frank Harris has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Frank Harris has 307.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 95.22 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 66.0 times this season, which puts him in the 92.66 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 7.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Sincere McCormick RB 5-9 200

This season, Sincere McCormick has 921 rushing yards on 171 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Sincere McCormick picked up 109 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Zakhari Franklin WR 6-1 185

This season, Zakhari Franklin picked up 508 yards. He caught the ball 38 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Brandon Matterson DL 6-2 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UTSA, Brandon Matterson has 24 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 84.25 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Rashad Wisdom S 5-10 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for UTSA, Rashad Wisdom had 72 tackles which puts him in the 100.0 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.05 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Rashad Wisdom as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 95.93 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Corey Mayfield Jr. CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for UTSA, Corey Mayfield Jr. had 31 tackles which puts him in the 96.54 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 93.24 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Corey Mayfield Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.65 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Southern Miss Roster

The Players to Watch for Southern Miss

Jack Abraham QB 6-0 209

This season, Jack Abraham has put up 1224 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.2thus far this season. Jack Abraham has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jack Abraham has 26.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 53.58 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 29.0 times this season, which puts him in the 72.7 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Frank Gore Jr. RB 5-8 165

This season, Frank Gore Jr. has 527 rushing yards on 99 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Frank Gore Jr. picked up 34 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jason Brownlee WR 6-3 195

This season, Jason Brownlee picked up 474 yards. He caught the ball 29 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Eriq Kitchen DL 6-2 286

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Southern Miss, Eriq Kitchen has 26 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 84.25 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Malik Shorts DB 6-0 192

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Southern Miss, Malik Shorts had 64 tackles which puts him in the 99.54 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.05 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Malik Shorts as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

UTSA vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: UTSA 30 Southern Miss 32

Spread Pick: Southern Miss +10.5 -110 BetOnline
Moneyline Pick: Southern Miss +320 5Dimes
Total Pick: Over 51.5 -108 Heritage