College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Vanderbilt visits Mississippi State on 11/7/2020 at 3:30PM.

Vanderbilt and Mississippi State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Vanderbilt has a record of 0-4 this season. Mississippi State is 1-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Vanderbilt Team Defense Preview

Vanderbilt has had 31 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.06 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Vanderbilt is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Vanderbilt has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 54.14% of their opponents’ play calls.Vanderbilt tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Vanderbilt opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Vanderbilt can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.95 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Vanderbilt is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Vanderbilt Team Offense Preview

Vanderbilt has had 30 total drives this season and they generate 5.5 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Vanderbilt passes the football 47.27% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Vanderbilt struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Vanderbilt can take credit for 2.48 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Vanderbilt Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Vanderbilt has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Mississippi State Team Defense Preview

Mississippi State has had 64 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.72 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Mississippi State is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Mississippi State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 50.99% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Mississippi State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Mississippi State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.05 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Mississippi State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Mississippi State Team Offense Preview

Mississippi State has had 63 total drives this season and they generate 5.25 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 80.06% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Mississippi State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Mississippi State can take credit for 2.77 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Mississippi State Offense this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Mississippi State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Vanderbilt Roster

The Players to Watch for Vanderbilt

Ken Seals QB 6-3 218

This season, Ken Seals has put up 730 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 124.4thus far this season. Ken Seals has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Ken Seals has -34.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 5.1 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 20.0 times this season, which puts him in the 66.67 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Ja’Veon Marlow RB 5-11 195

This season, Ja’Veon Marlow has 148 rushing yards on 33 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Ja’Veon Marlow picked up 4 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 2 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Cam Johnson WR 6-0 198

This season, Cam Johnson picked up 224 yards. He caught the ball 23 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dayo Odeyingbo DL 6-6 276

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Vanderbilt, Dayo Odeyingbo has 20 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.01 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Dashaun Jerkins S 6-0 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Vanderbilt, Dashaun Jerkins had 26 tackles which puts him in the 87.55 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.61 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Dashaun Jerkins as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jaylen Mahoney CB 5-11 185

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Vanderbilt, Jaylen Mahoney had 23 tackles which puts him in the 95.17 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 93.49 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jaylen Mahoney as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.66 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Mississippi State Roster

The Players to Watch for Mississippi State

K.J. Costello QB 6-5 225

This season, K.J. Costello has put up 1283 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 10 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 116.7thus far this season. K.J. Costello has thrown 10 interceptions this season.As a rusher, K.J. Costello has -65.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.78 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 24.0 times this season, which puts him in the 72.94 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jo’quavious Marks RB 5-10 195

This season, Jo’quavious Marks has 121 rushing yards on 31 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jo’quavious Marks picked up 139 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Osirus Mitchell WR 6-5 210

This season, Osirus Mitchell picked up 304 yards. He caught the ball 22 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nathan Pickering DT 6-4 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Mississippi State, Nathan Pickering has 15 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 94.26 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marquiss Spencer DE 6-4 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Mississippi State, Marquiss Spencer has 20 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 96.67 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Shawn Preston JR. S 6-0 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Mississippi State, Shawn Preston JR. had 26 tackles which puts him in the 87.55 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 91.81 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Shawn Preston JR. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Martin Emerson CB 6-2 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Mississippi State, Martin Emerson had 27 tackles which puts him in the 97.21 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 82.34 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Martin Emerson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.66 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Vanderbilt 13 Mississippi State 31

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Mississippi State -878 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 45 -105 Pinnacle Sports