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Virginia vs. Florida State 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Virginia visits Florida State on 11/28/2020 at 8:00PM.

Virginia and Florida State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Virginia has a record of 4-4 this season. Florida State is 2-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Virginia Team Defense Preview

Virginia has had 97 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.33 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 49.90% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Virginia is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Virginia can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.57 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Virginia is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Virginia Team Offense Preview

Virginia has had 98 total drives this season and they generate 5.65 plays per drive. Virginia runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Virginia is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 53.43% of their play calls.Virginia tends to pass more than other teams.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.28 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Virginia this season. Virginia is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Virginia has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Florida State Team Defense Preview

Florida State has had 89 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.74 plays per drive. Florida State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Florida State message boards are flights of fantasy. Florida State opponents pass the football 48.92% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Florida State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Florida State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.06 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Florida State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Florida State Team Offense Preview

Florida State has had 89 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.61 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Florida State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 50.30% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Florida State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Florida State can take credit for 3.25 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Florida State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Florida State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Florida State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Virginia Roster

The Players to Watch for Virginia

Brennan Armstrong QB 6-2 215

This season, Brennan Armstrong has put up 1571 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has thrown 8 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 142.8thus far this season. Brennan Armstrong has thrown 8 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brennan Armstrong has 399.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 97.38 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 94.0 times this season, which puts him in the 98.03 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 4.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Wayne Taulapapa RB 5-9 210

This season, Wayne Taulapapa has 366 rushing yards on 82 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Wayne Taulapapa picked up 55 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Terrell Jana WR 6-0 200

This season, Terrell Jana picked up 392 yards. He caught the ball 32 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jowon Briggs DT 6-1 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Virginia, Jowon Briggs has 20 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.08 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 95.77 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Mandy Alonso DE 6-2 280

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Virginia, Mandy Alonso has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

D’Angelo Amos DB 6-1 185.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Virginia, D’Angelo Amos had 46 tackles which puts him in the 96.15 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. D’Angelo Amos as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Nick Grant CB 6-1 200

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Virginia, Nick Grant had 21 tackles which puts him in the 82.87 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Nick Grant as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 83.79 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Florida State Roster

The Players to Watch for Florida State

Jordan Travis QB 6-1 200

This season, Jordan Travis has put up 864 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 119.3thus far this season. Jordan Travis has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jordan Travis has 472.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 98.36 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 85.0 times this season, which puts him in the 96.39 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 6.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

La’Damian Webb RB 5-8 190

This season, La’Damian Webb has 366 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, La’Damian Webb picked up 68 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ontaria Wilson WR 6-0 174

This season, Ontaria Wilson picked up 341 yards. He caught the ball 29 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marvin Wilson DT 6-5 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida State, Marvin Wilson has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 75.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 77.7 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Janarius Robinson DE 6-5 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida State, Janarius Robinson has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 7 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.93 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 91.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Asante Samuel Jr. DB 5-10 184.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Florida State, Asante Samuel Jr. had 30 tackles which puts him in the 85.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Asante Samuel Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 98.79 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Virginia vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Virginia 31 Florida State 26

Spread Pick: Florida State +9 -111 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Virginia -300 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 58.5 -137 matchbook