2025-04-22 Memphis at Oklahoma City Matchup Preview
Oklahoma City's dominant regular season provides them home-court advantage, setting the stage for a compelling playoff battle against a Memphis team looking to disrupt their momentum.
Season Overview
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this playoff matchup on April 22nd as a dominant force, boasting a 68-14 regular season record, a testament to their strong play on both ends of the floor. In contrast, the Memphis Grizzlies concluded their regular season with a 48-34 record, securing their playoff berth but facing an uphill battle against the top-seeded Thunder. Oklahoma City likes to operate at a slightly slower pace, averaging 100.0 possessions per game, compared to Memphis's faster tempo of 103.2 possessions per game.
Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Profile
During the regular season, the Memphis Grizzlies demonstrated an offensive style characterized by strong offensive rebounding, securing 28.7% of available offensive rebounds, while assisting on 63.5% of their made field goals. However, in the playoffs their offensive rebounding percentage has fallen to 23.6%. Memphis also had a regular season turnover percentage of 13.1%. Their free throw percentage in the regular season was 78.6%, with a playoff figure of 83.3%. Memphis, in the playoffs, is only garnering 0.8 assists per turnover.
Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Profile
The Oklahoma City Thunder's defensive prowess is highlighted by their ability to limit second-chance opportunities, allowing opponents to secure only 25.3% of offensive rebounds during the regular season, and 23.6% in the playoffs. This will be tested against Memphis's focus on offensive rebounding. During the regular season, Thunder opponents assisted on 64.9% of their made field goals and in the playoffs are only assisting on 56.3%. Oklahoma City forces a high turnover percentage of 14.8% in the regular season and 19.0% in the playoffs, with opponents also shooting 34.2% from three during the regular season and 17.6% from three during the playoffs. The Thunder also allow opponents to shoot 77.4% from the free throw line during the regular season and 83.3% from the free throw line in the playoffs. Oklahoma City's steal percentage is 10.3% during the regular season and 11.3% in the playoffs, while their block percentage sits at 11.9% during the regular season and 13.6% in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Profile
Oklahoma City’s offensive identity revolves around ball movement and efficient shot selection. They displayed a strong assist percentage of 60.2% during the regular season and an even better 72.0% in the playoffs, indicating a focus on team play and finding the open man. The Thunder maintained a low turnover percentage of just 10.3% during the regular season and 13.2% in the playoffs, reflecting their ball security and decision-making. Their free throw percentage during the regular season was 81.9%, with a playoff figure of 93.3%. Oklahoma City boasts an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3 during both the regular season and the playoffs, showcasing their offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City's offensive rebounding percentage is 24.2% during the regular season and 28.6% in the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Profile
Memphis' defensive strategy is anchored in strong defensive rebounding, securing 75.0% of available defensive rebounds during the regular season, and 71.4% during the playoffs. The Grizzlies allow opponents to assist on 64.5% of their made field goals in the regular season, and 72.0% in the playoffs. Memphis forces an opponent turnover percentage of 12.9% during the regular season, and 13.9% during the playoffs, while allowing opponents to shoot 36.0% from three during the regular season and 35.4% during the playoffs. The Grizzlies allow opponents to shoot 77.0% from the free throw line in the regular season and 93.3% during the playoffs. Memphis’ steal percentage is 8.6% during the regular season and 6.6% during the playoffs, while their block percentage is 10.8% during the regular season and 7.8% during the playoffs.
Key Matchup Considerations
Memphis’s offensive rebounding strength will be put to the test against Oklahoma City’s defensive rebounding. Oklahoma City's ball movement and assist percentage will challenge Memphis's ability to limit opponent assists. The ability of Memphis to force turnovers will be important as they attempt to disrupt Oklahoma City's offensive flow. Oklahoma City will test Memphis's defensive rebounding, while Memphis's ability to force turnovers on defense could be crucial in slowing down Oklahoma City's offense.
Prediction
Given Oklahoma City's superior regular season record and overall efficiency, coupled with their strong defensive capabilities and offensive ball movement, they are favored to win this matchup. While Memphis has the potential to make it a competitive game, the Thunder's consistency and efficiency, particularly at home, should give them the edge. The Thunder's defense should be able to exploit the Grizzlies' increased turnover percentage in the playoffs. With Oklahoma City's playoff offense being a well oiled machine, Memphis will struggle to contain their scoring attack.
Predicted Score: Memphis 106, Oklahoma City 125