2025-04-26 Houston at Golden State Matchup Preview
This playoff matchup between Houston and Golden State will hinge on Houston's ability to exploit Golden State's defensive rebounding struggles.
Season Overview
The Houston Rockets head into this playoff game with a 52-30 record, showcasing a team capable of consistent performance throughout the regular season, while the Golden State Warriors concluded their regular season with a 48-34 record, indicating a slightly more inconsistent performance relative to their opponent.
Offensive Breakdown
Houston's regular season offense is predicated on generating second chance opportunities, demonstrated by an offensive rebound percentage of 31.7. In comparison, the Warriors posted an offensive rebound percentage of 27.3 during the regular season. Houston facilitates ball movement, shown by their assist percentage of 54.9. However, Golden State's assist percentage of 71.4 indicates a strong team-oriented offensive approach. Houston's regular season turnover percentage is 11.8, whereas Golden State's sits at 12.2, meaning both teams are responsible in keeping the ball secure. Looking into the playoffs, Houston improved their second chance points by increasing their offensive rebounding percentage to 37.1, while the Warriors dropped to a low 16.5 percent.
Defensive Strategies
Defensively, Houston boasts a defensive rebound percentage of 76.3. This is a slight edge over Golden State's 75.7, showcasing a similar commitment to securing the defensive glass. Houston's opponents assist percentage is 58.0, suggesting a disciplined approach to limiting passing lanes, whereas Golden State allowed 63.9, indicating a weakness in their perimeter defense. Houston's opponents turnover percentage is 12.8 during the regular season, whereas Golden State's is 14.0, indicating a similar ability to force turnovers. The Rockets held opponents to a 35.7 percent shooting from three-point range, while the Warriors are allowing 36.3. During the playoffs, Houston is allowing teams to grab 83.6 percent of their defensive rebound opportunities, while the Warriors are bottoming out at 62.9 percent.
Pace and Style of Play
Both teams are playing at a similar pace, as they both average 98.6 possessions per 48 minutes. Golden State's offensive philosophy involves consistent ball and player movement, which allows the team to generate open looks. Houston's is more deliberate and emphasizes individual matchups, allowing for the opportunity to create scoring opportunities.
Key Matchups and Intangibles
A crucial aspect of this matchup will be how Houston attacks the glass against Golden State. Houston's regular season offensive rebound percentage is at 31.7, while the Warriors yield a 75.7 defensive rebound percentage. Houston forcing their way into the paint to gain offensive rebounds will test the Warriors defense, and will also require the Warriors to box out.
Game Prediction
Given Houston's ability to control the glass on both ends of the floor, along with Golden State's lack of efficiency on the defensive glass, Houston is primed to win this game with second chance points. Additionally, Houston's ability to defend the three-point line will be a huge factor, as they can limit Golden State's scoring options. Golden State does not get easy looks in the paint. The predicted score for this contest is Houston 106, Golden State 103.