2025-04-26 Oklahoma City at Memphis Matchup Preview

Oklahoma City's Offensive Strengths

Oklahoma City enters this contest boasting an offense that has been effective both during the regular season and the playoffs, predicated on ball movement and limiting turnovers. Their assist percentage in the regular season of 60.2 and playoff assist percentage of 60.4 showcases their commitment to finding the open man and creating high-quality scoring opportunities. Furthermore, their regular season turnover percentage of 10.3 and playoff turnover percentage of 9.7 indicates their careful approach to ball security, minimizing easy possessions for their opponents. Oklahoma City supplements their potent offense by securing offensive rebounds, demonstrated by their offensive rebound percentage of 29.6 in the playoffs, presenting second-chance opportunities.

Memphis's Defensive Approach

Memphis counters with a defense that demonstrated a stronger defensive rebound percentage of 75.0 compared to Oklahoma City's regular season defensive rebound percentage of 74.7, limiting second chance opportunities for their opponents in the regular season. However, in the playoffs, Memphis's defensive rebound percentage decreased to 70.4 compared to Oklahoma City's 78.3, signaling a possible area of concern for the Grizzlies. Memphis forces turnovers at a decent clip, as evidenced by their regular season steal percentage of 8.6. Their block percentage of 10.8 in the regular season shows a capacity to protect the rim, which increased to 12.5 in the playoffs, hinting at adjustments to their defensive scheme.

Memphis's Offensive Capabilities

During the regular season, Memphis showcased its offensive capabilities with a strong emphasis on ball movement, as indicated by their assist percentage of 63.5. However, this figure decreased to 54.2 in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Grizzlies secured a solid offensive rebound percentage of 28.7. A notable drawback for Memphis is their turnover percentage, standing at 13.1 during the regular season, which increased to 15.9 in the playoffs, signaling issues with ball security.

Oklahoma City's Defensive Strategy

Oklahoma City's defensive strategy is predicated on disrupting passing lanes and protecting the paint. The Thunder's regular season steal percentage of 10.3 will test Memphis's ball-handling, while their regular season block percentage of 11.9, which increased to 12.5 in the playoffs, will make interior scoring difficult for the Grizzlies. During the regular season, opponents shot 34.2% from three-point range against Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City limited their opponent's assist percentage to 64.9 during the regular season, and improved to 54.2 in the playoffs.

Pace and Intangibles

Oklahoma City played at a pace of 100.0 during the regular season, while Memphis played at a faster pace of 103.2. The contrast in pace will be a key factor, as Oklahoma City will seek to control the tempo and limit Memphis's transition opportunities, while Memphis will look to speed up the game and capitalize on fast-break points. Memphis's regular season win-loss record of 48-34 pales compared to Oklahoma City's 68-14.

Game Prediction

Oklahoma City's superior regular season record, combined with their potent offensive efficiency and improved playoff defensive numbers, positions them favorably in this matchup. Memphis's struggles with turnovers in the playoffs, along with their decreased defensive rebounding percentage, could prove to be detrimental against a disciplined Oklahoma City squad. Expect Oklahoma City to control the game's tempo, exploit Memphis's turnovers, and capitalize on second-chance opportunities.

Predicted Score:

• Oklahoma City: 121
• Memphis: 109