Pitching Matchup
Colin Rea is slated to start for the Chicago Cubs, tasked with holding down a Pirates offense eager to make an impact at PNC Park. Rea's ability to command his pitches and induce weak contact will be critical against a Pirates lineup looking to capitalize on scoring opportunities. On the other side, the Pirates will send Paul Skenes to the mound, and he will aim to stifle the Cubs' potent offense. The young right-hander's repertoire, known for velocity and movement, will be put to the test against a Cubs team that has shown the ability to punish mistakes.
Cubs Offensive Outlook
The Chicago Cubs enter this game with an offense that has been a force to reckon with thus far in the 2025 season. The Cubs' team weighted runs created plus showcases their collective ability to generate runs at an above-average rate. Their lineup is built around players who can not only get on base but also drive the ball with authority, putting constant pressure on opposing pitchers. One area where the Cubs have excelled is in their ability to avoid unproductive outs; they force opposing pitchers to work to get every out. Against Skenes, the Cubs hitters will need to focus on laying off pitches outside the strike zone and capitalizing on any mistakes in the heart of the plate. Patience and discipline will be key to unlocking the Pirates' young right-hander.
Pirates Offensive Outlook
The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense, while not as statistically dominant as the Cubs, has demonstrated flashes of potential this season, particularly in their ability to manufacture runs through a combination of speed and timely hitting. Although their team weighted runs created plus may not be as high as the Cubs, they possess a lineup capable of stringing together hits and taking advantage of defensive miscues. Their offensive wins above replacement indicates a generally solid performance, but there's room for improvement in consistently driving the ball for extra bases. A key factor for the Pirates' success against Rea will be their ability to work deep counts and force the Cubs' starter to throw strikes. By getting into favorable hitting counts, they can increase their chances of generating quality contact and putting runs on the board.
Key Matchup: Rea vs. Pirates' Contact Hitters
A pivotal aspect of this game will be the duel between Colin Rea and the Pirates' contact-oriented hitters. The Pirates' approach at the plate is geared towards putting the ball in play and creating opportunities through timely hits and aggressive baserunning. This contrasts with Rea's pitching style, which relies on inducing weak contact and minimizing hard-hit balls. Rea's success in this matchup will depend on his ability to locate his pitches effectively and keep the ball away from the heart of the plate. The Pirates hitters, on the other hand, will need to be disciplined in their approach, avoiding the temptation to chase pitches outside the strike zone and waiting for opportunities to drive the ball into the gaps. The ability of the Pirates to generate a high batting average on balls in play will be instrumental in their ability to score runs against Rea. If the Pirates can consistently put the ball in play and force the Cubs' defense to make plays, they can create scoring opportunities and put pressure on Rea early in the game.
Bullpen Battle
The strength of both teams' bullpens will be critical, especially if the game remains close late. The Cubs' bullpen has demonstrated more reliability thus far, exhibiting a greater ability to limit damage and maintain leads. The Pirates' relief corps has experienced inconsistencies, making it imperative for them to minimize high-leverage situations. Each manager will need to make smart decisions in the later innings, deploying relievers who can effectively neutralize the opposing team's hitters.
Intangibles
The energy of a day game at PNC Park could favor the Pirates slightly. The Cubs must maintain focus and execute their game plan effectively despite the road environment.
Cubs 5 Pirates 4
