2025-05-05 Denver at Oklahoma City Matchup Preview

Offensive Expectations for Denver

Denver enters this matchup looking to solve Oklahoma City's stout defensive scheme, as the Nuggets regular season offense showcased a commitment to ball movement as evidenced by their assist percentage of 68.3, while securing offensive rebounds at a rate of 26.7 percent. However, in the playoffs, Denver’s assist percentage drops to 59.7, indicating a struggle to maintain their usual offensive flow against tighter defensive pressure and a slight uptick in offensive rebound percentage to 27.7. Denver must also contend with their tendency to turn the ball over, with a regular season turnover percentage of 12.4 percent and a playoff turnover percentage of 12.9 percent, and considering that Oklahoma City forces opponent turnovers at a rate of 16.2 percent, maintaining possession will be critical to Denver’s offensive success. Denver's three-point shooting is also an integral part of their offense, with a 37.6 percent conversion rate during the regular season, but rising to 38.9 percent in the playoffs, and they will need to exploit Oklahoma City's opponents three-point percentage of 30.4 percent.

Defensive Strategies for Denver

Defensively, Denver will focus on containing Oklahoma City's dynamic offense, as during the regular season, Denver allowed an opponents assist percentage of 66.9, while in the playoffs, that percentage has dropped to 63.2. Additionally, Denver secured defensive rebounds at a rate of 74.6 percent during the regular season, and in the playoffs, it rose to 76.2 percent. Denver's defensive success will depend on limiting easy opportunities for Oklahoma City, as Denver's regular season block percentage sits at 9.0 percent, but drops to 7.5 percent in the playoffs. The Nuggets' ability to defend without fouling will also be crucial, as they allowed opponents to shoot 77.7 percent from the free-throw line during the regular season, while in the playoffs, that percentage decreases to 71.5 percent, which must be a point of emphasis to take advantage of Oklahoma City's high free throw percentage of 78.8 percent during the playoffs.

Offensive Philosophy for Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City's offensive approach is characterized by efficiency and capitalizing on opponent mistakes. During the regular season, Oklahoma City's turnover percentage was 10.3 percent, and in the playoffs, that number decreased to 9.0 percent, indicating a commitment to valuing possession. Oklahoma City's true shooting percentage stands at an elite level during the regular season, but isn't available, however during the playoffs, it is even more efficient, as Oklahoma City is adept at scoring from various areas on the court, and as well, they're grabbing offensive rebounds at a rate of 27.7 percent. Oklahoma City's ball movement is another crucial aspect of their offense, with a assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3 in the regular season and 2.5 in the playoffs, indicating a commitment to finding the best shot.

Defensive Priorities for Oklahoma City

On the defensive end, Oklahoma City's strategy revolves around creating turnovers and protecting the paint. During the regular season, Oklahoma City forces steals at a rate of 10.3 percent, and in the playoffs, that rate increases to 10.6 percent, disrupting opponent offensive rhythm. Additionally, Oklahoma City's block percentage of 11.9 percent in the regular season rises to 12.9 percent in the playoffs, indicating a willingness to challenge shots at the rim. Oklahoma City does well to not foul opponents, as they only allow opponents to shoot 77.4 percent from the free throw line during the regular season, and 87.8 percent in the playoffs, therefore, it will be important to take advantage of Denver's below average free throw percentage. The Thunder rebound well for their size, with a defensive rebound percentage of 74.7, with an uptick in the playoffs to 76.4, and they'll need to lean into those strengths against a Denver team that secures offensive rebounds at a rate of 27.7 percent.

Game Prediction

Oklahoma City's defensive pressure and efficient offense will likely give them the edge in this matchup, however, Denver's offensive rebounding and three-point shooting could keep them competitive. Despite Denver's ability to secure offensive rebounds and convert three-pointers at a decent clip, Oklahoma City's ability to disrupt offensive flow and protect the paint could prove to be the deciding factor, and their stellar play will be too much for Denver to handle.

Predicted Score: Denver 103, Oklahoma City 125