Offensive Overview: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder's offense operates with impressive efficiency, demonstrated by their regular season assist percentage of 60.2, which speaks to a team that values ball movement and shared scoring opportunities. Their ability to limit turnovers, reflected in a low 10.3% turnover percentage, allows them to maximize possessions. In the playoffs, Oklahoma City has improved their offensive rebounding percentage from 24.2 to 26.4, demonstrating a commitment to securing second-chance points, while also exhibiting an improved assist to turnover ratio of 2.7. Their regular season free throw percentage of 81.9% suggests a team that can capitalize on opportunities when driving to the basket, which is also echoed by their playoff free throw percentage of 80.4%. Oklahoma City appears to run an offensive scheme predicated on motion and ball movement, but their improvements in offensive rebounding and limiting turnovers show that they are making in-series adjustments and that they are coaching-oriented.
Defensive Overview: Denver Nuggets
Denver's defense is anchored by its ability to control the defensive glass, as shown by their defensive rebounding percentage of 74.6. While they allow a high opponent assist percentage of 66.9, their ability to force turnovers, reflected in an opponent turnover percentage of 11.3, helps disrupt offensive flow. The Nuggets' defense concedes a 36.5% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, an area where they will need to improve their perimeter pressure. Their playoff defensive rebounding percentage of 76.2 has improved from the regular season, and they are still a poor perimeter defending team as they allow 37.1% from three. Denver's defensive approach seems to rely on a pack-line strategy, aimed at protecting the paint and forcing opponents into difficult shots, however, they concede too many open looks from three.
Offensive Overview: Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets boast an efficient offense, highlighted by their regular season true shooting percentage of 60.4%, indicating their ability to score effectively from all areas of the court. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 26.7 allows them to generate second-chance opportunities. Denver's offensive system emphasizes ball movement, evidenced by their assist percentage of 68.3, and they complement that by limiting turnovers, with a 12.4% turnover percentage. Their playoff three-point percentage has improved from the regular season from 37.6% to 38.2% which allows them to space the floor efficiently. Denver is less efficient in the playoffs, as they have an assist to turnover ratio of only 1.5, and their true shooting percentage is only 56.5%. Denver runs a continuity offense with set plays, as evidenced by their decline in ball movement and overall assist rate during the playoffs.
Defensive Overview: Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City's defense excels at creating turnovers, demonstrated by their steal percentage of 10.3 during the regular season, disrupting opponent offensive sets. Their defensive rebounding percentage of 74.7 limits second-chance opportunities for their opponents. Defensively, the Thunder do a solid job limiting opponent three-point shooting, allowing just 34.2% from beyond the arc in the regular season. In the playoffs, their steal percentage has improved to 10.9 and they are limiting opponents to 32.4% from three. The Thunder appear to emphasize a no-middle defensive scheme, which funnels opponents towards the sidelines and utilizes their length and athleticism to contest shots and force turnovers.
Matchup Analysis
The key to this matchup lies in the contrasting offensive styles and defensive strengths. Oklahoma City's ball movement and ability to limit turnovers will be tested against Denver's pack-line defense and emphasis on protecting the paint, but Denver gives up open threes to Oklahoma City, which will cause problems for them. The Nuggets' offensive efficiency and ability to create second-chance opportunities will challenge Oklahoma City's defensive rebounding and perimeter defense, but the Thunder will feast on their ability to create turnovers due to Denver's increased rate of turnovers in the playoffs. Oklahoma City's ability to force turnovers in the playoffs bodes well against Denver's stagnant offense in the playoffs, where they commit more turnovers and have less ball movement.
Pace and Prediction
Oklahoma City plays at a pace of 100.0 possessions per game, while Denver plays at a slightly slower pace of 99.8. However, the pace slows down even more for Denver in the playoffs, which means that they will have even more struggles if they are forced to play fast against a transition-heavy Oklahoma City team. Expect Oklahoma City to push the tempo and leverage their defensive pressure to create easy scoring opportunities. The Thunder's focus on creating turnovers and defensive rebounding will further fuel their transition game, allowing them to capitalize on fast-break points, which will be a recipe for success.
Predicted Score
Oklahoma City 120, Denver 107
