2025-05-11 Cleveland at Indiana Matchup Preview
With Cleveland looking to advance, Indiana hopes to extend their season by leveraging their defensive strengths and offensive ball movement.
Season Overview
The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this matchup with a regular season record of 64 wins and 18 losses, demonstrating their dominance throughout the year, while the Indiana Pacers finished with a respectable 50 wins and 32 losses, showcasing their competitiveness in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland played at a pace of 99.8 possessions per game, a style that balances methodical offense with opportunistic scoring, while Indiana mirrored that pace at 99.9.
Cleveland Offensive Outlook
Cleveland’s offensive strategy is predicated on securing extra possessions, demonstrated by their offensive rebounding percentage of 25.9 during the regular season, which has increased to 29.0 in the playoffs, suggesting an emphasis on crashing the boards. They assist on 63.1 percent of their made field goals in the regular season, which has dropped to 58.1 percent in the playoffs, a potential area of concern as the ball movement is more stagnant. The Cavaliers also protect the ball well, evidenced by a regular season turnover percentage of 11.6 that dropped further to 9.6 in the playoffs, showing more care with the ball. Cleveland converts 77.6 percent of their free throws in the regular season, and raised that mark to 82.8 percent in the playoffs, indicating their ability to capitalize on opportunities at the foul line. In the playoffs, they have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3, which is an increase from their regular season mark of 2.1. During the regular season, opposing teams had a steal percentage of 7.8, a figure reduced to 5.5 percent in the playoffs, further emphasizing their ball security.
Indiana Defensive Strategy
Indiana's defense is built to force turnovers and capitalize on opponents' mistakes, as indicated by their regular season opposing team assist percentage of 61.0, which increased to 59.1 percent in the playoffs, pointing to some degree of effectiveness in disrupting offensive flow. Indiana exhibits a playoff defensive rebounding percentage of 74.2. The Pacers are effective at generating turnovers, demonstrated by a regular season opposing team turnover percentage of 13.2, a mark that has decreased to 11.2 in the playoffs, so they are potentially getting less disruption on turnovers. Opponents shot 35.5 percent from beyond the arc against Indiana during the regular season, which is up to 33.8 percent in the playoffs, pointing to effectiveness at guarding the three point line, and they shot 77.3 percent from the free throw line during the regular season, which is up to 75.2 percent in the playoffs. The Pacers demonstrate a steal percentage of 8.4 during the regular season, but that has gone down to 6.8 percent in the playoffs, while their block percentage is 10.2 in the regular season, which has increased to 12.1 percent in the playoffs.
Indiana Offensive Capabilities
Indiana's offensive identity revolves around ball movement and high assist rates. During the regular season, the Pacers assisted on 67.1 percent of their field goals, which increased to 68.6 percent in the playoffs, demonstrating their commitment to team-oriented basketball. Indiana's offensive rebounding percentage is 21.3 percent in the regular season and 17.3 percent in the playoffs, indicating a decline in second-chance opportunities during the postseason. They had a turnover percentage of 11.8 during the regular season which has slightly increased to 11.9 percent during the playoffs. Indiana had a free throw percentage of 78.9 percent during the regular season and 79.7 percent in the playoffs. The Pacers boast an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 in the regular season and 2.3 in the playoffs. Indiana's opponents had a steal percentage of 7.1 percent during the regular season and 6.8 percent in the playoffs, while Indiana's opponents had a block percentage of 8.3 percent during the regular season and 7.6 percent in the playoffs.
Cleveland Defensive Approach
Cleveland’s defense prioritizes limiting second chance opportunities and contesting shots effectively. Cleveland's defensive rebounding percentage is 74.8 percent in the regular season and 78.9 percent in the playoffs. The Cavaliers demonstrate solid defense, indicated by a regular season opposing team assist percentage of 62.1, which has increased slightly to 63.1 percent in the playoffs. Cleveland forces turnovers as reflected by an opposing team turnover percentage of 12.4 during the regular season, which is up to 15.3 percent in the playoffs. Opponents shot 35.9 percent from three-point range against Cleveland during the regular season, which increased to 37.2 percent in the playoffs, while opponents shot 77.9 percent from the free throw line during the regular season and 74.0 percent during the playoffs. Cleveland has a steal percentage of 8.1 during the regular season which has gone up to 9.6 percent in the playoffs. Cleveland has a block percentage of 8.0 during the regular season which is down to 7.8 percent in the playoffs.
Matchup Analysis
The game will come down to if the Cleveland defense can continue to force turnovers against a pass-happy Indiana offense, which dictates if Cleveland can capitalize off of those turnovers and control the offensive rebounding battle. Cleveland's improved three-point shooting defense in the playoffs will be tested by Indiana's ability to spread the floor and find open looks. Indiana needs to continue to block shots as they have been, while also being disruptive on the perimeter and forcing Cleveland into turnovers.
Prediction
Cleveland's slightly better defensive profile and ability to control the boards will lead them to a narrow victory on the road.
Final Score: Cleveland 114, Indiana 109