2025-05-12 Boston at New York Matchup Preview

Team Overviews

The Boston Celtics enter this playoff contest with a regular-season record of 61 wins and 21 losses, showcasing their dominance throughout the year; the New York Knicks, with a solid 51-31 record, have proven themselves a formidable opponent, especially on their home court. Boston's regular season pace was measured at 95.7 possessions per 36 minutes, a relatively controlled tempo that allows them to maximize their offensive efficiency, while New York played at a pace of 96.7 possessions per 36 minutes.

Offensive Analysis

Boston's offensive prowess is rooted in ball movement and shot creation, as evidenced by their regular season assist percentage of 62.8%; however, that has diminished to 54.6% in the playoffs; the team's true shooting percentage of 0.591 reflects their ability to convert possessions into points effectively. Boston also has a regular season three-point percentage of 36.8% and a free throw percentage of 79.9%; in the playoffs, those metrics are 35.1% and 83.4%, respectively. The Celtics have also taken care of the ball as demonstrated by a regular season assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.2. A key element of Boston's attack is offensive rebounding, with a regular season offensive rebound percentage of 25.7%, rising to 27.5% in the playoffs. This allows them to generate second-chance opportunities and maintain possession.

New York, on the other hand, sports a regular season assist percentage of 63.4% that shrinks in the playoffs to 50.4%; their playmaking is focused on interior passing; their three-point shooting dipped to 35.7% in the regular season, but is down to 34.1% in the playoffs; but they are still deadly, and must be accounted for. The Knicks’ offensive rebound percentage is 26.0% during the regular season, and 25.5% in the playoffs; this is an important aspect of their game that allows them to extend possessions and exploit mismatches. However, the playoffs have seen the team's offensive production dip, but that is to be expected with closer officiating and tighter defense.

Defensive Analysis

Defensively, Boston stands out with their defensive rebound percentage of 76.1%; that drops to 74.1% in the playoffs; this negates opponents' second-chance opportunities. Opponent assist percentage against the Celtics is 59.6% in the regular season; it drops further to 51.8% in the playoffs; this indicates a disciplined approach to defending the pass and limiting easy scoring opportunities. The team has a regular season steal percentage of 7.4% and a block percentage of 10.5%, displaying their ability to disrupt opponents' offenses. The Celtics allow opponents to shoot 34.7% from three and 77.7% from the free throw line. In the playoffs, these figures have improved, limiting opponents to 28.9% from three and 67.0% from the free throw line.

The Knicks defensive rebound percentage is 74.5%; it drops further to 71.0% in the playoffs, and their ability to secure rebounds limits second chances. The Knicks force turnovers at a high rate, as shown by their opponent turnover percentage of 13.4% in the regular season, which is bolstered to 13.8% in the playoffs, which provides them with valuable possessions and easy scoring chances. New York’s steal percentage is 8.4% and their block percentage is 7.6% in the regular season. These figures become 8.9% and 9.8% respectively in the playoffs, indicating that they ramp up their defensive intensity. Opponents shoot 36.7% from three and 78.9% from the free throw line against New York during the regular season. In the playoffs, those numbers become 32.3% and 80.9%, respectively.

Matchup Breakdown

Boston's high assist percentage during the regular season contrasts with New York's ability to force turnovers, presenting an interesting clash of styles. The Celtics must protect the ball and make smart decisions to mitigate the impact of the Knicks' aggressive defense. The New York defensive rebound percentage is lacking when compared to Boston's offensive rebounding capabilities; this could be a decisive factor in determining which team controls the flow of the game. Conversely, the Knicks' ability to generate turnovers could disrupt the Celtics' offensive rhythm. For New York, their ability to generate turnovers is a key aspect of their defense, so they can disrupt the Celtics’ offensive flow; however, they cannot afford to give up easy looks.

Prediction

Given the defensive intensity both teams bring, expect a physical and closely contested game; Boston’s playoff defensive improvements may not be enough to overcome the Knicks' aggressiveness; this may swing the game in New York’s favor. The game is predicted to be low scoring.

Predicted Score: Boston 102, New York 103