2025-05-13 Indiana at Cleveland Matchup Preview

Team Records and Pace

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this contest with a regular season record of 64 wins and 18 losses, while the Indiana Pacers concluded their regular season with a 50-32 record; both teams play at a similar pace, averaging around 99.9 possessions per 36 minutes, suggesting a relatively even tempo for this playoff game.

Offensive Outlook

Indiana's offensive identity is rooted in ball movement, as evidenced by their regular season assist percentage of 67.1%, which demonstrates a commitment to team play and finding the open man; however, their offensive rebound percentage dips in the playoffs to 17.7%, which could pose problems against Cleveland's stout defensive rebounding. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a strong offensive rebounding presence, securing 25.9% of available offensive rebounds during the regular season which increases to 28.6% during the playoffs, indicating their intent to generate second-chance opportunities; the Cavaliers' assist percentage of 63.1% in the regular season and 58.9% in the playoffs indicates a less ball movement reliant offense than Indiana, as they rely more on individual creation and transition scoring.

Defensive Strategies

Defensively, Indiana showcases their ability to disrupt opponents through creating turnovers, with a steal percentage of 8.4% during the regular season, while Cleveland demonstrates a similar steal percentage of 8.1%; however, the Cavaliers have increased their steal percentage in the playoffs to 9.4%, demonstrating increased defensive pressure; the Pacers exhibit an impressive block percentage of 10.2% during the regular season, and it increased to 11.6% during the playoffs, indicating a strong rim protection presence, while Cleveland's regular season block percentage stands at 8.0%, which slightly dips to 7.7% during the playoffs. Cleveland demonstrates defensive consistency by holding opponents to a 35.9% three-point shooting percentage during the regular season, which slightly increases to 37.8% during the playoffs, while Indiana held opponents to 35.5% from three during the regular season and 34.4% during the playoffs, displaying defensive prowess.

Key Matchup Factors

The battle on the boards will be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of this game. Cleveland's offensive rebounding prowess, especially with their playoff offensive rebound percentage of 28.6%, will test Indiana's defensive rebounding capabilities; Indiana's ability to limit second-chance opportunities for Cleveland will be essential in controlling the game's flow. Furthermore, Indiana's ball movement offense will be challenged by Cleveland's defensive intensity; Cleveland's ability to disrupt passing lanes, evidenced by their playoff steal percentage of 9.4%, could lead to turnovers and easy transition opportunities for the Cavaliers.

Intangibles and X-Factors

Turnover margin will be a critical factor as both teams show an aptitude for avoiding turnovers. Indiana averaged a turnover percentage of 11.8% during the regular season while Cleveland did a similar job with a turnover percentage of 11.6%; however, Cleveland has cleaned things up in the playoffs with their turnover percentage decreasing to 10.9%. Indiana's assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.2 during the regular season and 2.4 during the playoffs demonstrates efficient ball movement and decision-making; conversely, Cleveland's assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1 during the regular season and 2.0 during the playoffs signals slightly less efficient ball security, but is not a large enough difference to be a true weakness.

Game Prediction

Cleveland's advantage on the boards, coupled with their defensive intensity, is poised to give them an edge in this playoff matchup. Cleveland's defensive capabilities of limiting quality looks will ultimately be the difference, especially considering their defensive rebounding percentage increases to 79.0% in the playoffs. Expect Cleveland to control the pace and dominate the rebounding battle, leading to a hard-fought victory.

Predicted Score: Indiana 105, Cleveland 117