2025-05-17 Astros at Rangers Matchup Preview

Pitching Matchup

Ronel Blanco will take the mound for the Houston Astros, aiming to continue his solid season. Blanco's ability to command his fastball and mix in effective off-speed pitches will be crucial against a potent Texas Rangers lineup. Blanco will need to be mindful of his pitch velocity, location and movement, with a diverse approach to keep the Rangers hitters off balance.

Countering for the Texas Rangers is Tyler Mahle, who is looking to establish himself as a reliable starter. Mahle’s repertoire includes a slider and changeup, which he uses to disrupt hitters' timing. Command and control will be key for Mahle as he navigates the Houston Astros' patient batting order, and he will look to capitalize on any early aggressiveness.

Astros Hitting Analysis

The Houston Astros enter this game with a collective age of 29 years old, showing the experience and veteran presence in the lineup, giving them a seasoned approach at the plate. The Astros have accumulated a team total Wins Above Replacement of 5.7, demonstrating their overall value and effectiveness as a unit. Against Mahle, the Astros hitters will focus on exploiting his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, with the goal of driving up his pitch count early in the game. Key to their approach will be patience, forcing Mahle to work deep into counts, increasing the chances of mistakes.

Rangers Hitting Analysis

The Texas Rangers offense has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a lineup that balances power and contact. Their team total Wins Above Replacement comes in at 3.4, an indicator of the overall contribution from their players. The Rangers, whose average age is 30, are a veteran crew with experience at the plate, which balances out their total Wins Above Replacement. Against Blanco, the Rangers hitters will need to be disciplined, waiting for pitches they can drive. They will need to focus on making solid contact and avoiding chasing pitches outside the strike zone.

Key Matchups and Intangibles

A key matchup to watch is how the Astros hitters handle Mahle's slider. If they can lay off the slider when it's out of the zone and capitalize when it's in the zone, they will have success. Similarly, the Rangers hitters need to be prepared for Blanco’s fastball, which he likes to use to establish the strike zone. A team must be able to get runners on, and then capitalized when runners are in scoring position.

Both teams are familiar with each other, adding an element of intensity to the game, with each team battling for position within the division. Each team will rely on their bullpen arms to protect the lead and come away with the victory.

Prediction

This game is shaping up to be a close, low-scoring affair, heavily influenced by the starting pitching. Blanco and Mahle are both capable of keeping runs to a minimum. With both teams having veteran offenses, expect the bullpens to be a factor.

Astros 3, Rangers 2