2025-05-21 Indiana at New York Matchup Preview

Offensive Philosophies

The Indiana Pacers enter this matchup showcasing a fluid offensive system predicated on ball movement and high assist rates. During the regular season, the Pacers assisted on 67.1% of their made field goals, a testament to their commitment to team basketball. This emphasis on sharing the ball continues into the playoffs, where their assist percentage sits at 68.9%. The Pacers are also extremely careful, with a low turnover percentage during the regular season of 11.8% that has not shifted in the playoffs. Meanwhile, New York's offensive approach differs considerably. While also valuing assists, demonstrated by their 63.4% assist rate during the regular season, their playoff assist rate has fallen to 51.7% so it seems that they are shifting away from the core principles they used to define their offense. Instead, they focus on securing second-chance opportunities, evidenced by a 26.0% offensive rebounding percentage during the regular season that has jumped up to 27.1% in the playoffs. This indicates a more physical and aggressive style on the offensive glass.

Defensive Strategies

Defensively, both teams exhibit distinct characteristics. Indiana prioritizes limiting opponents' ball movement, holding opponents to an assist percentage of 61.0% during the regular season, which has improved to 56.9% during the playoffs. Moreover, the Pacers excel at generating blocks, recording a block percentage of 10.2% in the regular season that has improved to 12.0% in the playoffs. The Pacers defend the three-point line well, holding opponents to 35.5% shooting from beyond the arc during the regular season, and an even stingier 33.6% in the playoffs. The Knicks boast a sturdy defensive rebounding percentage of 74.5%, mirroring the Pacers' success in securing defensive boards, while also causing plenty of turnovers at 13.4% during the regular season, and 13.3% in the playoffs. The Knicks are also solid at defending the three-point line as they held opponents to 36.7% during the regular season, and a strong 34.0% in the playoffs.

Matchup Analysis

The key battleground in this contest lies in the rebounding arena. New York's offensive rebounding percentage during the playoffs is 27.1% but will be challenged by Indiana’s defensive rebounding percentage of 74.1%. Indiana's ability to secure defensive rebounds will be critical in limiting New York's second-chance opportunities and preventing them from controlling the pace of the game. Furthermore, Indiana's exceptional assist percentage on offense of 68.9% in the playoffs will be tested against New York's defensive scheme, which allows an assist percentage of 53.8%. Indiana's ability to maintain ball movement and generate open looks will be crucial in overcoming New York's defensive pressure. Indiana also blocks 12.0% of opponent shot attempts, which is solid, but the Knicks are not someone who allow many blocks at only 7.4% allowed during the playoffs. Finally, Indiana forces turnovers at 12.0% which may be what they want to key on versus a Knicks team that only turns it over 11.7% of the time.

Pace and Tempo

The Indiana Pacers demonstrate a faster pace of play, averaging 99.9 possessions per game during the regular season. However, their playoff pace has yet to be determined and not shared, so it remains to be seen what they are prioritizing. The New York Knicks, conversely, prefer a more deliberate tempo, averaging 96.7 possessions per game during the regular season. The Knicks will want to slow down Indiana. In order to do so, they will want to secure offensive rebounds and convert, otherwise, Indiana's transition game will get them into easier looks.

Intangibles and X-Factors

The intangible aspects of this matchup cannot be overlooked. Playoff experience, coaching adjustments, and individual player performances will all play a role in determining the outcome. Which team can best execute their game plan, adapt to changing circumstances, and maintain composure under pressure will likely emerge victorious. For Indiana, limiting turnovers is critical, and will likely determine the flow of the game.

Prediction

Given New York's slightly better record, home-court advantage, and ability to secure crucial offensive rebounds, they have a slight edge in this contest. Indiana's potent offense will keep the game close, but the Knicks' physicality and defensive prowess may prove to be the deciding factors.

Predicted Score: Indiana 105, New York 111