2025-05-23 Indiana at New York Matchup Preview

Season and Playoff Performance Overview

The New York Knicks finished the regular season with a 51-31 record, narrowly edging out the Indiana Pacers, who went 50-32. While both teams maintained a similar defensive rebound percentage of 74.5% during the regular season, their offensive approaches differ, setting the stage for a compelling contrast in styles. Indiana, with a regular season pace of 99.9, prefers a quicker tempo, while New York operates at a more deliberate pace of 96.7. This difference in pace will be a key factor in determining the flow and control of the game.

Offensive and Defensive Matchups

Indiana's offensive game hinges on ball movement and finding the open man, evidenced by their assist percentage of 67.1% during the regular season and 67.0% in the playoffs. However, New York's playoff defense has been stingy in allowing assists, with opponents only achieving an assist percentage of 53.5%. This suggests the Knicks will likely focus on disrupting passing lanes and forcing Indiana into contested shots. The Pacers' ability to limit turnovers will be critical, as their turnover percentage is a low 11.2% in the playoffs, suggesting a calculated approach to possessions.

The Knicks' offensive rebounding prowess, marked by a 27.5% offensive rebound percentage in the playoffs, presents a challenge to Indiana's defensive rebounding. The Pacers will need to box out effectively and limit second-chance opportunities for New York. Conversely, Indiana's playoff defense has shown strength in blocking shots, posting a block percentage of 11.2%, potentially deterring the Knicks from driving to the basket. New York will need to use shot fakes and crafty maneuvers in the paint to get around this defensive pressure.

From beyond the arc, Indiana's opponents have only been shooting 33.5% from three during the playoffs. New York will have to use their shooting opportunities and try to push that percentage higher to create some scoring margin and separation.

Key Statistical Considerations

Both teams demonstrate solid free-throw shooting, with Indiana converting 78.9% of their free throws in both the regular season and playoffs. New York shot 80% in the regular season and 74.5% in the playoffs. This suggests that end-of-game situations could become free-throw contests, where composure and accuracy will be vital. Indiana's assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.4 in the playoffs highlights their efficient ball handling, while New York's lower ratio of 1.6 indicates a greater vulnerability to turnovers when pressured.

Offensive and Defensive Styles

Indiana appears to run a motion offense, emphasizing ball and player movement to create open looks. Defensively, they likely employ a combination of man-to-man and zone principles, adjusting based on opponent personnel and game situations. New York's offense is more series-oriented, relying on structured plays and isolations for key players. Defensively, they likely utilize a pack line approach, prioritizing paint protection and forcing opponents to shoot contested jump shots.

Intangibles and Game Strategy

The game will likely be decided by which team can impose its style of play more effectively. If Indiana can dictate a faster pace and generate open shots through ball movement, they can exploit New York's defense. However, if New York can control the tempo, dominate the boards, and capitalize on second-chance opportunities, they will put Indiana's defense under immense pressure. Furthermore, both teams must maintain discipline on defense, avoiding unnecessary fouls and minimizing turnovers, as these mistakes can prove costly in a tightly contested playoff game.

Prediction

Given New York's slightly superior regular-season record and their ability to control the pace of the game, they are positioned to secure a narrow victory at home. Their offensive rebounding and paint protection should give them an edge, while Indiana's ball movement and three-point shooting will keep them competitive. The Knicks' home-court advantage and defensive discipline should be enough to see them through.

Predicted Score

Indiana: 106

New York: 111