2025-05-25 New York at Indiana Matchup Preview

Offensive Styles and Playoff Adjustments

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers present contrasting offensive styles, particularly evident in their playoff performances. During the regular season, the Knicks secured a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 26.0, indicating a commitment to second-chance opportunities. However, their assist percentage drops significantly from 63.4 in the regular season to 51.1 in the playoffs, suggesting a shift away from ball movement towards a more isolation-heavy approach when the stakes are raised. Indiana, meanwhile, thrives on ball movement, posting a regular-season assist percentage of 67.1, which remains strong in the playoffs at 66.5, pointing to a continuity offense built on passing and player movement. The Pacers also commit slightly fewer turnovers than the Knicks in the regular season at 11.8 compared to 11.9, but they demonstrate more efficient ball security in the playoffs with 11.1 compared to New York’s 11.7. Indiana's offensive focus appears to be a motion offense relying on pace and player movement to keep the defense in rotation while New York seems to lean more heavily on set pieces and physicality.

Defensive Matchups and Strategies

Defensively, both teams showcase strengths and weaknesses that will be tested in this matchup. The Knicks demonstrate a slightly better defensive rebounding percentage of 74.5 versus the Pacers' 74.5 during the regular season, but during the playoffs, the Pacers edge the Knicks, 73.6 to 73.3. The Knicks' ability to limit opponent assists is marginal during the regular season, giving up 60.7% and the Pacers give up 61.0%. However, in the playoffs, both teams improve their defense to 54.1% (NY) and 55.2% (IND). New York also holds opponents to a 36.7% three-point shooting percentage during the regular season, increasing to 35% during the playoffs, while Indiana holds opponents to 35.5% during the regular season, becoming even more stifling in the playoffs at 33.6%. The Knicks' defense appears to be a blend of man-to-man principles and help rotations from the weak side, aiming to contain penetration and force contested shots. Indiana’s defense is also primarily man-to-man, but with an emphasis on denying the middle of the floor and funneling opponents towards the baseline, where their shot blockers can provide assistance.

Pace and Possession Battle

The Indiana Pacers play at a faster pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per game during the regular season, compared to the Knicks' 96.7. This difference in pace could be a critical factor, as Indiana will likely aim to push the tempo and exploit their conditioning, hoping to wear down New York as the game progresses. The Knicks will need to control the pace through rebounding and disciplined offense to prevent the game from becoming a track meet. Given the Pacers' offensive rebounding percentage dips in the playoffs to 18.3 from 21.3 in the regular season, the Knicks need to prioritize defensive rebounding to prevent second-chance opportunities. Conversely, Indiana must exploit their slightly improved ability to force turnovers in the playoffs, turning defensive stops into fast-break points.

Key Factors and Prediction

Several factors will be decisive in determining the outcome of this game. New York's ability to generate second-chance points through offensive rebounding will be crucial, as will their capacity to limit Indiana's transition opportunities. The Knicks must also find ways to generate ball movement and involve multiple players in the scoring, preventing the offense from becoming stagnant. For Indiana, maintaining their pace and exploiting mismatches in transition will be key. Their ability to protect the ball and limit turnovers will be just as important, as turnovers can lead to easy points for the Knicks. Containing New York's key scorers and forcing them into difficult shots will be paramount to Indiana’s defensive success. Given these factors, a close, high-intensity game is anticipated, with both teams battling for every possession.

Predicted Score: New York 109, Indiana 110