2025-05-29 Indiana at New York Matchup Preview

Team Overviews

The Indiana Pacers, finishing the regular season with a 50-32 record, have demonstrated an offensive system predicated on ball movement and player activity. The New York Knicks, slightly ahead at 51-31, boast a more deliberate offensive approach, focusing on leveraging their size and strength. The Pacers' pace of 99.9 possessions per 48 minutes suggests a preference for an up-tempo style, while the Knicks' 96.7 pace signals a more controlled game.

Offensive and Defensive Matchups

Indiana's offensive rebounding percentage in the playoffs sits at 17.9%, while New York's defensive rebounding percentage is 74.5%, which shows a potential advantage on the glass for the Knicks. Indiana's assist percentage of 66.1% in the playoffs showcases their commitment to sharing the ball, which will be tested by a Knicks' defense allowing an opponent assist percentage of 55.3%. The Pacers will need to use their assist acumen to try to create higher quality looks as a result of the strong rotations from New York. New York will have to stay disciplined against an Indiana offense that wants to keep the ball moving. The Pacers will have to be disciplined to win this game.

New York's playoff offensive rebounding percentage is a significant 27.4%, suggesting a dedicated effort to secure second-chance opportunities. Indiana's defensive rebounding percentage of 73.6% will need to step up to counter this. The Knicks' playoff assist percentage drops to 50.0%, pointing to a more isolation-oriented offensive approach in the playoffs. Indiana's defensive strategy, which has allowed an opponent assist percentage of 53.5% in the playoffs, will be tested, as they will need to keep to their assignments to avoid New York creating high percentage looks. New York's assist to turnover ratio is 1.5 which shows their playmaking and that they don't give up many opportunities. Indiana's assist to turnover ratio is 2.3 which shows a commitment to finding the right play. Indiana wants to speed the game up to capitalize, so they will need to take that away to ensure they have the better chance. The Pacers will need to be stout.

Key Factors and Strategies

Indiana's regular season offensive turnover percentage of 11.8% is marginally better than New York's 11.9%. However, in the playoffs, Indiana has upped that percentage slightly, at 11.2%, while New York sits at 12.1%. This facet of the game could be a critical point in the game, given how stout the Knicks are on defense. New York allowed an opponent steal percentage of 7.9% in the playoffs, while Indiana's opponent steal percentage sits at 7.0% in the playoffs. The Knicks have a slight edge here.

Defensively, Indiana allows an opponent three-point percentage of 34.1% in the playoffs, which could be a strength of their defense. New York's opponent three-point percentage in the playoffs is a slightly higher 34.6%. Limiting open looks from beyond the arc will be critical for both teams. Indiana's regular season defensive block percentage of 10.2% is higher than New York's 7.6%, suggesting a greater rim protection capability. However, in the playoffs, both teams have stepped it up, with Indiana at 10.4% and New York at 9.7%. Interior defense and challenging shots at the rim will be paramount.

New York's regular season offensive free throw percentage is 80%, while Indiana's is 78.9%, pointing to efficient scoring opportunities when they get to the line. Free throw shooting in clutch situations will be a key factor, and neither team wants to put the other at the line. The Pacers have done a great job defensively from the free throw line as they allow an opponent free throw percentage of 78%, while the Knicks allow 78.6% from the line to their opponents in the playoffs.

Game Prediction

Given the Knicks' home-court advantage and their slight edge in rebounding and defensive tenacity, they appear poised to take this game. Indiana will need to be sharp from the perimeter to take down New York. The Knicks will have to be ready to rotate and contest those shots to come away victorious, as the rim is patrolled well.

Predicted Score: Indiana 106 - New York 111