2025-05-31 New York at Indiana Matchup Preview

Offensive Overview

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers showcase contrasting offensive styles, setting the stage for an intriguing matchup. New York demonstrates a strong commitment to offensive rebounding, securing 26.0% of available offensive boards during the regular season, which marginally improves to 27.3% in the playoffs. The Knicks' offensive rebounding prowess can give them extra possessions. Indiana, while less active on the offensive glass at 21.3% in the regular season and a diminished 18.0% in the playoffs, excels in ball movement. The Pacers' assist percentage of 67.1% in the regular season and 66.1% in the playoffs highlights their commitment to team play, generating quality looks for their shooters and cutters. New York will need to prioritize boxing out to limit second chance opportunities for the Knicks, while Indiana must maintain their ball movement against New York's defense to generate open shots.

Defensive Strategies

Defensively, both teams possess similar defensive rebounding rates, with New York securing 74.5% of defensive rebounds during the regular season, which increases slightly to 74.8% in the playoffs; Indiana matches this at 74.5% in the regular season, but decreases to 73.6% in the playoffs. Where they truly differ is in defending the three-point line. The Pacers held opponents to a 35.5% three-point shooting percentage during the regular season and 33.8% in the playoffs, while New York held opponents to 36.7% during the regular season and 34.6% in the playoffs. Indiana's effectiveness in deterring three-point shots coupled with the Knicks' knack for forcing turnovers, evident in their opponent turnover percentage of 13.4% in the regular season, which dips to 12.7% in the playoffs, could disrupt New York's offensive rhythm. The Pacers will have to be disciplined with their rotations and closeouts to minimize open looks from beyond the arc. New York, on the other hand, must leverage their defensive capabilities to disrupt Indiana's passing lanes and force turnovers.

Pace and Style of Play

The pace of the game will likely be dictated by Indiana. The Pacers' regular season pace of 99.9 possessions per 36 minutes suggests a preference for an up-tempo style. New York's pace of 96.7 possessions per 36 minutes indicates a slightly more deliberate approach. The contrast in pace could influence the flow of the game, with Indiana seeking to create a fast-paced, high-scoring contest. New York will aim to control the tempo and impose their physicality.

Key Matchups and Intangibles

The New York Knicks demonstrate superior assist-to-turnover ratio throughout the season, as evidenced by a 2.1 ratio compared to Indiana's 2.2 ratio. In the playoffs, this changes to 1.5 for New York to Indiana's 2.2. New York could try to exploit this deficiency within the Pacers' offense, but the Indiana defense is not prone to giving up steals, as evidenced by their opponent steal percentage during the season of 7.1%, compared to New York's 7.2%. This has not changed much as their opponents have a steal percentage of 7.2% when playing the Pacers and 7.3% when playing the Knicks. This contrasts against New York's lower assist percentage in the playoffs of 50.0% when compared to their regular season rate of 63.4%. The ability to force turnovers and capitalize on transition opportunities could be a significant factor for the Knicks.

The Pacers’ ability to disrupt shots, which can be seen by their block percentage, stands at 10.2% during the regular season and increases to 10.5% in the playoffs, in contrast to the Knicks' 7.6% and 9.5% respectively, showcasing their interior defensive presence. The Pacers' defensive prowess within the paint could deter the Knicks from attacking the rim, forcing them to rely more on perimeter shots. New York's ability to generate second-chance points, thanks to their strong offensive rebounding, could offset Indiana's interior defense. Controlling the paint and limiting second-chance opportunities will be crucial for Indiana.

Final Prediction

This game promises to be a hard-fought battle between two evenly matched teams. New York's offensive rebounding and defensive tenacity will test Indiana's ball movement and three-point shooting capabilities. Indiana's ability to control the pace and protect the paint could give them an edge, but New York's resilience and second-chance opportunities will keep them in the game. Ultimately, New York's ability to limit Indiana's three-point opportunities at the end of the game will give them a slight edge.

Prediction: New York Knicks 109, Indiana Pacers 108