2025-06-05 Indiana at Oklahoma City Matchup Preview

Offensive Outlook

Indiana's offensive identity revolves around ball movement and generating opportunities through assists, showcased by their assist percentage of 67.1% during the regular season, a testament to their commitment to team play. In the playoffs, this figure has dipped slightly to 66.0%, which is something the Thunder will want to keep in check if they want to limit the output of the Pacers. They couple their ball movement with taking care of the ball, as the team had a regular season turnover percentage of 11.8%, suggesting good decision-making and ball security. They will need to continue to take care of the ball against an Oklahoma City team that forced a 14.8% turnover percentage during the regular season and 15.3% during the playoffs. Oklahoma City is a team that is able to generate steals and contest shots.

Defensive Expectations

Indiana's defensive approach is built upon limiting opponents' interior scoring and protecting the rim as they averaged 10.2% block percentage during the regular season and 10.9% during the playoffs. However, their defensive rebounding percentage of 74.5% during the regular season and 73.4% during the playoffs indicates an area where Oklahoma City might find an advantage on the offensive glass. Forcing misses and limiting second chance opportunities will be key for Indiana in this matchup. Their ability to defend without fouling is also crucial, considering they limit opponents to a free throw percentage of 77.3% during the regular season and 76.8% during the playoffs.

Oklahoma City's Strengths

Oklahoma City's offense is potent, fueled by strong offensive rebounding. They had a regular season offensive rebounding percentage of 24.2% which has jumped to 25.6% during the playoffs, giving them ample second-chance opportunities. In contrast, Indiana's defensive rebounding percentage of 73.4% in the playoffs suggests a potential area of weakness the Thunder will exploit. Their ability to draw fouls and convert free throws, highlighted by their 81.9% free throw percentage during the regular season and 79.0% during the playoffs, can be pivotal in close games. Their assist percentage of 60.2% during the regular season indicates a team-oriented approach, although this has decreased to 59.2% in the playoffs. Oklahoma City's assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3 during the regular season suggests efficient ball movement and decision-making, but will need to do so against a team that is very disruptive.

Oklahoma City's Defensive Prowess

Defensively, Oklahoma City excels at creating turnovers, posting a steal percentage of 10.3% in the regular season and 10.8% in the playoffs. This aggressive defense will challenge Indiana's ball-handling, particularly given Indiana's turnover percentage of 11.7% during the playoffs. Oklahoma City also protects the rim well, recording a block percentage of 11.9% in the regular season and 11.5% in the playoffs. Their ability to limit opponents' three-point shooting, reflected in their opponent three-point percentage of 34.2% during the regular season and 33.1% during the playoffs, could stifle Indiana's perimeter-oriented players. Their defensive rebounding percentage of 74.7% indicates a strong ability to control the boards, further limiting opponents' second-chance points. Indiana will need to find ways to create open looks.

Pace and Game Flow

Oklahoma City plays at a slightly faster pace, with a pace of 100.0 possessions per game, while Indiana operates at a pace of 99.9. This difference, though slight, could favor Oklahoma City, especially when combined with their offensive rebounding prowess. With the game at home, Oklahoma City will be able to dictate tempo and style of play.

Final Thoughts

Oklahoma City's balanced offense and disruptive defense, combined with their home-court advantage, position them as strong favorites. Their ability to control the boards and force turnovers should give them an edge over Indiana. Although Indiana is certainly capable of pulling off an upset, they will need to play a nearly perfect game and limit their mistakes. The Thunder are simply too talented and too well coached to drop this game at home.

Prediction: Indiana 99, Oklahoma City 122