2025-06-16 Indiana at Oklahoma City Matchup Preview

Offensive Outlook for Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City boasts a well-rounded offensive attack, predicated on generating second chance opportunities and ball movement. The Thunder secure offensive rebounds at a rate of 24.2% during the regular season, which has actually gone up to 25.5% during the playoffs. However, Indiana's defensive rebounding rate of 73.7% in the playoffs should offer some resistance to those second chance opportunities, particularly as Oklahoma City's assist percentage takes a dip to 56.2% in the playoffs, signaling more individual creation when things get tough. The Thunder excel at valuing the basketball as they boast a regular season turnover percentage of just 10.3%, demonstrating a commitment to ball security. The Thunder's regular season free throw percentage of 81.9% speaks to their ability to capitalize on opportunities when they get to the line, with a similar 80.6% in the playoffs. Indiana's defense will need to limit fouls and force turnovers to disrupt the Thunder's offensive rhythm to prevent easy points.

Defensive Outlook for Indiana

Indiana's defensive success hinges on limiting opponent opportunities and disrupting their offensive flow. During the regular season, the Pacers allowed an opponent assist percentage of 61.0%, which has decreased to 51.3% during the playoffs, suggesting improvements in defending the pass. Indiana forces turnovers at a rate of 12.4% during the playoffs, with a steals percentage of 7.8%. The Pacers also showcase their rim protection skills with a regular season block percentage of 10.2% and a playoff block percentage of 11.0%. Indiana's ability to defend without fouling is crucial, as they concede a regular season opponent free throw percentage of 77.3%, which has grown to 78.7% in the playoffs. The Pacers must focus on containing penetration and challenging shots without sending the Thunder to the free throw line.

Offensive Outlook for Indiana

Indiana relies on ball movement to generate scoring opportunities, but they have not been as potent during the playoffs. During the regular season, the Pacers posted an assist percentage of 67.1%, indicating a team-oriented offensive approach, but that has decreased to 65.3% in the playoffs. They must elevate their ball movement to exploit any defensive gaps that Oklahoma City presents. Indiana struggles with turnovers, evidenced by their 12.5% turnover percentage during the playoffs. The Pacers must prioritize ball security to avoid gifting possessions to the Thunder's defense. Offensive rebounding is not a major strength for Indiana as they only secure offensive rebounds at a 18.7% clip during the playoffs. Their free throw shooting, at 79.1% in the playoffs, is a relative strength they need to leverage.

Defensive Outlook for Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City's defense is built around generating turnovers and protecting the paint. The Thunder demonstrate their ability to disrupt opponents with a regular season opponent turnover percentage of 14.8%, which remains strong at 15.5% in the playoffs. They convert these turnovers into scoring opportunities, fueling their transition game. The Thunder showcase their ability to generate steals, posting a regular season steals percentage of 10.3% which has slightly improved to 10.7% during the playoffs. The Thunder also protect the rim with a regular season block percentage of 11.9% which has decreased to 11.0% in the playoffs. Opponents are shooting 33.7% from three against Oklahoma City in the playoffs, indicating a strong perimeter defense. Oklahoma City concedes a 79.7% opponent free throw percentage in the playoffs, they need to minimize fouls to avoid handing Indiana easy points.

Pace and Intangibles

Oklahoma City plays at a slightly faster pace of 100.0 possessions per 36 minutes compared to Indiana's 99.9. The Thunder's superior regular season record of 68 wins and 14 losses compared to Indiana's 50 wins and 32 losses reflects their overall dominance. Oklahoma City's ability to control the tempo and execute in crucial moments gives them a significant edge in this matchup. Their ability to force turnovers and capitalize on second chance opportunities will be key to their success.

Prediction

Oklahoma City's offensive firepower and disruptive defense are likely to overwhelm Indiana. The Thunder's ability to generate turnovers, control the boards, and capitalize on scoring opportunities will prove to be the difference. Indiana will struggle to contain Oklahoma City's diverse attack and will be forced into difficult shots and turnovers.

Predicted Score: Indiana 99, Oklahoma City 122