2025-06-19 Oklahoma City at Indiana Matchup Preview

Team Overviews

The Oklahoma City Thunder, boasting a regular season record of 68 wins and 14 losses, arrive in Indiana as a team predicated on pushing the pace, demonstrated by their pace of 100.0 possessions per 36 minutes. Oklahoma City relies on creating extra possessions via offensive rebounding to buoy their offense. The Indiana Pacers, at 50 wins and 32 losses, play at a similar pace of 99.9 possessions per 36 minutes and will look to dictate terms on their home court. Indiana depends on ball movement and is predicated on ball and player movement, cutting, screening and handoffs to create opportunities.

Offensive Analysis

Oklahoma City's offense excels at securing offensive rebounds, as they grabbed 24.2% of available offensive rebounds during the regular season, showcasing their tenacity on the glass, and that number grows to 26.1% during the playoffs. Their offensive rebounding could present a challenge to Indiana, whose defensive rebounding percentage stands at 74.5% in the regular season and 73.1% during the playoffs. Where the Pacers shine is in assist percentage, clocking in at 67.1% during the season and a slightly lower 65.2% during the playoffs. Forcing turnovers is a staple of the Thunder defense, as opponents cough it up on 14.8% of possessions, which will come in handy against a Pacer team that has a regular season turnover percentage of 11.8%. During the playoffs, that number jumps to 12.9%, suggesting a potential vulnerability that Oklahoma City can exploit.

Defensive Analysis

Defensively, Oklahoma City exhibits a strong ability to disrupt opposing offenses, specifically in forcing turnovers with a steal percentage of 10.3% in the regular season and 10.9% in the playoffs. They also contest shots effectively, demonstrated by their block percentage of 11.9% in the regular season and 11.6% in the playoffs. This defensive pressure will be tested against Indiana's offensive system, which values ball movement and team play. The Pacers will look to attack a Thunder team that allows opponents to score 34.2% from beyond the arc during the regular season and 33.8% during the playoffs, while the Pacers yield a 35.5% clip during the regular season and 34.4% during the playoffs. Indiana's defensive assist percentage is 61.0% in the regular season and a stingier 51.7% in the playoffs. Oklahoma City assists on 60.2% of their made shots, so limiting the passing lanes will be key.

Key Matchups and Intangibles

The battle on the boards will be crucial, as Oklahoma City's offensive rebounding prowess could generate second-chance opportunities. Oklahoma City makes 81.9% of their free throws during the regular season and 80.6% of them during the playoffs, so limiting fouls will be a key to victory. Indiana gets to the free throw line at a 78.9% clip during the regular season and 79.1% of the time during the playoffs, so the discrepancy is minimal.

Conclusion

This game should come down to the wire, and the team that controls the defensive glass the best will most likely be victorious. However, Oklahoma City's ability to create turnovers and capitalize on second-chance points due to offensive rebounds, coupled with their overall talent advantage, should give them an edge. Their ability to disrupt Indiana's offensive flow will be a key factor. Look for a close, hard-fought contest, but ultimately, Oklahoma City's well-rounded game to be too much for the Pacers to handle.

Predicted Score

Oklahoma City: 118, Indiana: 103