2025-07-06 Reds at Phillies Matchup Preview

Starting Pitcher Matchup

The Cincinnati Reds will send rookie Chase Burns to the mound to face the Phillies. Burns, a highly touted prospect, features a fastball that consistently reaches high velocities, complemented by a slider that showcases sharp, late movement. His changeup is still developing, and its effectiveness will be key to his success against a patient Phillies lineup. His ability to command the strike zone will be tested as he tries to navigate through the Phillies' batting order.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is a seasoned veteran known for his exceptional command and a diverse arsenal of pitches. His fastball maintains velocity deep into games, and his slider induces a high percentage of swings and misses. Furthermore, Wheeler's curveball provides a valuable change-of-pace offering. His experience and composure make him a formidable opponent for any team, and he will aim to exploit any weaknesses in the Reds' approach at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds Hitting Analysis

The Cincinnati Reds' offense is led by a mix of young talent and seasoned veterans. As a team, they have been collectively producing a team weighted on-base average that suggests a solid offensive approach. Their overall offensive output shows a capable team with the ability to generate runs, but they will need to focus on plate discipline against a pitcher like Wheeler who thrives on inducing chases outside the strike zone. Their weighted runs created plus is around the league average showing that they have some pop, but overall, can be shut down by aces.

Against right-handed pitchers, the Reds have generally maintained a batting average on balls in play showing decent luck and good contact. However, they will need to improve their strikeout percentage to avoid giving Wheeler easy outs. The Reds' ability to work deep counts and force Wheeler to throw a high number of pitches will be critical to their success. Keeping their on-base percentage high against Wheeler is key to the Reds getting runners into scoring position.

Philadelphia Phillies Hitting Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies' offense is a potent force, driven by a lineup that consistently demonstrates a high on-base percentage. Their offense is built around power hitters who are capable of changing the game with one swing. The team weighted on-base average is well above average, indicating a lineup filled with patient hitters who can get on base by drawing walks, which puts extra pressure on opposing pitchers like Burns.

Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have a lower strikeout percentage, demonstrating their ability to put the ball in play. Their batting average on balls in play is slightly above average, showing that they benefit from timely hits. The Phillies excel at situational hitting, often delivering key hits with runners in scoring position. Their ability to drive the ball to all fields makes them a challenging opponent for any pitcher, and they will aim to take advantage of any mistakes that Burns makes.

Key Matchups and Game Strategy

The key to this game will be how well the Reds' hitters can handle Wheeler's fastball and slider combination. If they can lay off the pitches outside the strike zone and force him to work deep into counts, they can wear him down and create opportunities to score. For the Phillies, their focus will be on getting ahead in the count against Burns and capitalizing on any mistakes he makes with his secondary pitches.

Defensively, both teams will need to be sharp. The Phillies have a slight advantage in terms of defensive efficiency, turning a higher percentage of batted balls into outs. The Reds will need to make sure their outfielders are positioned correctly to handle the Phillies' power hitters, while the Phillies will need to be ready to handle the Reds' speed on the basepaths.

Ultimately, this game will come down to the starting pitching matchup. Wheeler's experience and repertoire give the Phillies a clear advantage, but Burns has the potential to surprise if he can command his pitches effectively. The Reds will need to play a near-perfect game to come away with a victory on the road.

Reds 3 Phillies 5