2025-08-13 Marlins at Guardians Matchup Preview

Pitching Matchup

Eury Perez will take the mound for the Miami Marlins, bringing his impressive arsenal to Cleveland. Perez, known for his high velocity fastball, complements it with a sharp slider and developing changeup. The Guardians' hitters will need to be disciplined and patient, focusing on laying off pitches outside the strike zone. Perez's command has been inconsistent at times, leading to a walk percentage that the Guardians will aim to exploit. The ability to work deep counts and get into favorable hitter's counts will be key for the Guardians' offense.

Gavin Williams counters for the Cleveland Guardians, relying on a mix of a sinking fastball and a deceptive curveball. Williams challenges hitters to stay balanced as he is a strike thrower who has a low walk percentage, so the Marlins will need to be aggressive early in counts to find success, but also be selective and not get themselves out. His sinker induces ground balls, which can be advantageous with the Guardians' solid infield defense behind him. For the Marlins hitters to be successful against Williams, they'll need to adjust their approach to elevate the ball, as ground balls will likely result in outs.

Marlins Hitting Analysis

The Miami Marlins' offense has been a mixed bag this season. As a team, they are around the middle of the league in most offensive categories, but their overall offensive wins above replacement is a respectable number, indicating they have a few key contributors carrying the load. The Marlins' lineup features a blend of speed and power, however they don't hit for a high batting average. They struggle against pitchers who command the strike zone, and Williams' low walk percentage could spell trouble for their patient approach. The Marlins will need to be aggressive on fastballs early in the count and look to capitalize on any mistakes Williams makes over the plate. If they get behind in the count consistently, it could be a long night for the Miami offense.

The Marlins' best chance for success lies in their ability to drive the ball to the gaps. Their extra base percentage is a key offensive aspect of their game. Against Williams' sinker, they'll need to focus on staying on top of the ball and avoiding ground balls. If they can force Williams to elevate his pitches, they might find more success driving the ball into the outfield. Furthermore, the Marlins need to steal bases when the opportunity is there as their stolen base percentage is high and can turn momentum in their favor.

Guardians Hitting Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians' offense is constructed around getting on base and manufacturing runs. Their on base percentage is not particularly impressive, so they need to take advantage of situations to get baserunners moving with stolen bases. Their approach is predicated on patience and grinding out at-bats. However, against a strike thrower like Perez, they might need to be more aggressive early in counts. Their overall offensive wins above replacement is not the best, so they have to put the ball in play and hope for positive outcomes.

The Guardians excel at situational hitting and taking advantage of opponent's mistakes. Against Perez's high velocity fastball, they will need to shorten their swings and focus on making contact. If they can put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts, they can put pressure on the Marlins' defense and potentially create scoring opportunities. The Guardians' lineup features several players who are adept at hitting to the opposite field, which could be crucial against Perez's tendency to work inside on right-handed hitters. The Guardians' ability to work counts and draw walks will be crucial against Perez, especially as he tires later in the game.

Prediction

This game sets up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Both starters are capable of dominating, and the offenses are relatively evenly matched. The Guardians' ability to manufacture runs gives them a slight edge, especially playing at home. However, Perez's potential to overpower hitters could neutralize that advantage if he is on his game. Expect a close game decided by a late-inning hit or a defensive miscue. The Marlins' ability to hit for power will keep them in the game, but the Guardians' consistency and home-field advantage could give them a slight edge.

Ultimately, the Marlins will win a tight game with Eury Perez being able to locate his pitches better than Williams. The difference will be the stolen base to get runners into scoring position so the few hits are difference makers.