2025-08-15 Pirates at Cubs Matchup Preview

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Braxton Ashcraft will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ashcraft will look to command his fastball and effectively mix in his secondary pitches to keep the Cubs hitters off balance. Ashcraft's ability to control the strike zone and limit walks will be crucial for a Pirates victory. Ashcraft will need to focus on generating soft contact and avoiding leaving pitches over the heart of the plate against a patient Cubs lineup.

Opposing Ashcraft is right-hander Colin Rea for the Chicago Cubs. Rea relies on his experience and pitch sequencing to navigate through opposing lineups. Rea's success hinges on his ability to locate his pitches effectively and exploit any weaknesses in the Pirates' approach at the plate. Rea aims to induce ground balls and limit damage with runners on base. With Wrigley Field as the setting, Rea hopes that the weather will be in his favor, as Wrigley Field is known to play differently depending on wind conditions.

Pirates Hitting Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense enters this game with an average age of 28 years among its hitters. The Pirates' offensive performance can be further analyzed through the team's Weighted On-Base Average, which reflects their overall offensive output. In order to have team success against Rea, the Pirates need to increase their ability to get on base and avoid unproductive outs.

The Pirates' Linear Weights Runs Above Replacement indicates the offensive contribution of their hitters to the team's overall run production, sitting at a low 4.4. The Pirates will aim to improve their ability to generate scoring opportunities. Against Rea, the Pirates need to put together quality at-bats and capitalize on any mistakes, especially from the bottom of the order, with the heart of the order having to carry the load.

Cubs Hitting Analysis

The Chicago Cubs' offense showcases a lineup with an average age of 29 years and a history of consistency throughout the season. The Cubs' Linear Weights Runs Above Replacement of 23.1 shows the team's offensive ability to drive in runs. The Cubs will try to leverage their deep lineup and ability to get runners on base to put pressure on Ashcraft early in the game.

The Cubs' overall offensive output is reflective of their Weighted On-Base Average. The Cubs will need to be selective at the plate and capitalize on Ashcraft's mistakes to drive in runs. The key for the Cubs lies in their ability to work counts, draw walks, and string together hits, taking advantage of Wrigley Field's dimensions.

Game Prediction

This matchup features a contrast in styles, with the Cubs aiming to exploit the Pirates' pitching vulnerability. The Cubs' offensive prowess and consistent run production give them a significant advantage in this game. While Ashcraft will try to keep the Pirates in the game, the Cubs' lineup is expected to break through and provide enough run support for Rea to secure the victory.

The Cubs' ability to get runners on base and capitalize on scoring opportunities will be the deciding factor. The Pirates' offense may find it challenging to generate enough runs against Rea's pitching. The game is expected to favor the Cubs, who are playing at home and boast a more potent offensive lineup. The Pirates would need a tremendous offensive performance to come away with a victory on the road.

The Cubs are projected to win as they seem to be the better team with consistent run production and solid pitching.

Pirates 3 Cubs 5