2025-08-28 Pirates at Cardinals Matchup Preview

Starting Pitching Matchup

Braxton Ashcraft takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates, tasked with quieting a St. Louis Cardinals offense eager to capitalize on home-field advantage. Ashcraft will need to rely on his ability to generate strikes and induce weak contact to navigate the Cardinals' lineup. His effectiveness will depend on his ability to command his fastball and keep hitters off balance with his secondary offerings.

Opposing Ashcraft is veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Mikolas, known for his command and guile, will aim to exploit any weaknesses in the Pirates' batting order. His success hinges on his ability to locate his pitches effectively and vary his speeds, preventing the Pirates' hitters from settling into a comfortable rhythm. Mikolas' experience in crucial game situations could be a significant asset for the Cardinals.

Pirates Hitting Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense, as a unit, has demonstrated a Team Age of 28 this season. One of their strengths lies in their ability to steal bases effectively. However, their overall offensive production, as measured by Weighted Runs Above Average, paints a picture of a team that has struggled to consistently generate runs. The Pirates' offensive approach will need to be strategic against Mikolas, focusing on working deep counts and capitalizing on any mistakes the Cardinals' veteran makes.

Against a pitcher like Mikolas, the Pirates will need to focus on plate discipline and selective aggression. Chasing pitches out of the strike zone will play into Mikolas' strengths. Waiting for pitches they can drive and putting pressure on the Cardinals' defense will be key to generating scoring opportunities.

Cardinals Hitting Analysis

The St. Louis Cardinals' offense has been a more potent unit compared to the Pirates this season, reflected in their significantly higher Weighted Runs Above Average. Like the Pirates, their Team Age stands at 28 years. However, they haven't been as successful in stealing bases. Their overall offensive profile suggests a team that relies more on generating runs through extra-base hits and consistent run production throughout the lineup.

The Cardinals' lineup will present a challenge for Ashcraft. Their ability to generate hard contact and drive the ball into the gaps will test Ashcraft's ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Ashcraft will need to mix his pitches effectively and avoid falling into predictable patterns to keep the Cardinals' hitters off balance.

Game Prediction

Given the Cardinals' slightly stronger offensive profile and Mikolas' experience on the mound, they enter the game with a slight advantage. However, Ashcraft's potential to shut down the Cardinals' offense, coupled with the Pirates' ability to manufacture runs through timely hitting, makes this a potentially close and competitive contest. The game will likely hinge on which team can execute their offensive game plan more effectively and capitalize on any mistakes made by the opposing pitching staff.

The ability of the Pirates' hitters to make good contact against Mikolas and drive up his pitch count could be a deciding factor. Conversely, Ashcraft will need to limit the Cardinals' opportunities to string together hits and prevent them from generating momentum. Look for both teams to try to leverage their strengths and exploit any weaknesses in the opposing lineup.

While the Cardinals possess the potential for a higher ceiling, the Pirates have the ability to disrupt and challenge in order to get runners on base. This matchup between Mikolas and the Pirates will be a challenge and force the team to be disciplined at the plate.

Ultimately, this game may well come down to late-inning execution. The team that makes fewer mistakes defensively and capitalizes on scoring opportunities will likely emerge victorious.

The Cardinals' slight offensive edge and home-field advantage give them a narrow edge, but the Pirates are capable of pulling off the upset if they can generate enough offense and Ashcraft can keep the Cardinals' bats in check.

A decisive part of this matchup, however, is the team discipline the Pirates will have at the plate and the pitches that Ashcraft throws. Depending on the team discipline for the Pirates, this will dictate the tone for the Pirates run production in the matchup.

While the Cardinals, due to a slightly higher Weighted Runs Above Average, are the favorites, they are only favored by a small margin and their ability to manufacture runs may be challenged due to the way that Ashcraft mixes pitches.

This matchup between pitching and hitting will be interesting but I believe the Pirates will get runners on base more often, which will lead to a victory for the team.

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