2025-09-12 Rangers at Mets Matchup Preview

Starting Pitcher Matchup

The Texas Rangers will send veteran right-hander Jacob deGrom to the mound. At this stage in his career, deGrom relies more on guile and experience than overpowering velocity. While his fastball still possesses above-average movement, it doesn't consistently reach the upper-90s anymore. He mixes his pitches well, featuring a slider and changeup designed to keep hitters off balance. His experience and pitch diversity can still allow him to be successful, but the New York Mets' patient approach at the plate will be a challenge.

The New York Mets counter with rookie right-hander Jonah Tong. Tong features a plus fastball that he commands well within the strike zone. His secondary pitches are still developing, with his curveball and changeup showing flashes of potential but lacking consistency. He'll need to locate his pitches effectively to navigate the Rangers lineup.

Rangers Hitting Analysis

The Texas Rangers offense boasts a lineup with an average age of 30.0 years old. The team's Weighted On-Base Average sits at 0.320, showing that they are around average for getting on base, but they possess a lineup with strong offensive capabilities, shown by their 15.5 wins above replacement. They excel at hitting fastballs, especially those with above-average velocity. Facing Jonah Tong, they'll look to jump on his fastball early in the count. If Tong struggles to locate his secondary pitches, the Rangers hitters will likely sit on the fastball and try to drive it out of the park. The Rangers will need to be wary of getting too aggressive early in the count and falling victim to double plays or weak contact. The Rangers' lineup has good power, but they can get into trouble when they try to do too much.

Mets Hitting Analysis

The New York Mets offense has a collective age of 30 years, reflecting a veteran presence in the lineup. The team's Expected Slugging Percentage is 0.463, highlighting a significant ability to hit for extra bases. Their Weighted On-Base Average of 0.349 indicates a lineup capable of consistently reaching base and making things difficult for opposing pitchers. The team has accumulated an impressive 26.9 Wins Above Replacement, showcasing the overall value and impact of the Mets' hitters. The Mets lineup matches up well against deGrom, as they have the ability to wait on the pitches they want to hit and drive the ball into the gaps.

Defensive Considerations

Both teams field average defenses, meaning that errors will be critical and putting the ball in play is important. The ability to manufacture runs by putting pressure on the defense could be a difference maker for either side in this matchup. Pitchers will be well-advised to pitch to contact and trust their fielders to make the routine plays.

Intangibles

With the game taking place in New York, the Mets will have a definite crowd advantage. Whether or not the Mets can take advantage of that energy and string together some hits is to be determined, but that will be something to keep an eye on. The veteran presence on both sides should keep the players even-keeled and focused on the task at hand.

Prediction

This game features a classic matchup of veteran savvy against youthful exuberance. DeGrom will try to use his experience to navigate the Mets lineup, while Tong will rely on his fastball to keep the Rangers hitters at bay. The Mets have a slight edge due to their superior offensive metrics and the home-field advantage. However, deGrom's ability to mix his pitches and keep hitters off balance can never be underestimated. If Tong struggles with his secondary pitches, the Rangers could capitalize and put up some early runs. However, the Mets' consistent offensive performance and ability to take advantage of favorable matchups should give them a slight edge in this contest.

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