2025-09-17 Cubs at Pirates Matchup Preview

Starting Pitching Matchup

Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs, bringing a veteran presence to the rotation. Boyd's success hinges on his ability to command his pitches effectively, mixing velocity and movement to keep hitters off balance. He must maintain control within the strike zone and limit walks to avoid extending innings and fatiguing early. Conversely, Johan Oviedo will start for the Pittsburgh Pirates, relying on his repertoire to neutralize the Cubs' lineup. Oviedo's effectiveness is tied to his ability to generate swings and misses and induce weak contact, preventing the Cubs from stringing together hits.

Cubs Hitting Analysis

The Chicago Cubs enter this game showcasing a formidable offensive profile, achieving a weighted on-base average of .344 as a team. Their ability to get on base at a high clip forces opposing pitchers to constantly work out of the stretch, increasing the likelihood of mistakes. The Cubs' offense has also compiled a significant Wins Above Replacement of 27.9, indicating a substantial contribution to the team's overall success. The Cubs' hitters will need to be disciplined at the plate, focusing on driving pitches into the gaps and capitalizing on scoring opportunities when presented. Against Oviedo, they must be selective in their approach, avoiding chasing pitches outside the strike zone and waiting for favorable counts to unleash their power.

Pirates Hitting Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense, while not as potent as the Cubs, possesses the potential to disrupt the opposing pitcher's rhythm. The Pirates' lineup collectively features a weighted on-base average of .313. The Pirates need to be aggressive early in the count, taking advantage of any hittable pitches offered by Boyd. The Pirates have a Wins Above Replacement of 5.8 which indicates the team overall will need to continue to develop offensive talent. They must focus on shortening their swings, prioritizing contact and putting the ball in play to create opportunities for scoring. Boyd's ability to induce ground balls could play a significant role in the Pirates' offensive strategy.

Pitching vs. Hitting Matchup

The Cubs' hitters' ability to get on base with a weighted on-base average of .344 will pose a challenge for Oviedo, who must limit walks and control the running game. On the other side, the Pirates' hitters will aim to elevate the ball against Boyd and exploit any vulnerabilities in his pitch sequencing to generate runs. The contrast in approaches will define the flow of the game, with the Cubs seeking to wear down Oviedo and the Pirates looking to capitalize on early opportunities against Boyd. The ability of the Cubs to have a high Wins Above Replacement of 27.9 shows they are an offense that is likely going to be tough for the Pirates to contain in this matchup. The Pirates only have a Wins Above Replacement of 5.8, this is concerning for their ability to be able to keep up with the Chicago Cub offense.

X-Factors

The bullpen performance for both teams will be crucial, particularly in a close game. Any late-inning heroics from unexpected sources could swing the outcome in either direction. Defensive miscues must be minimized to prevent gifting the opposition extra outs or runs. Base running decisions will also play a pivotal role, with aggressive or cautious approaches potentially dictating the scoring dynamics of the game. The Cubs need to stay aggressive and take as many bases as possible, while the Pirates need to be selective and only take advantage of obvious errors and weaknesses of the Cubs defense. The Pirates cannot give the Cubs extra outs and bases through errors in the field.

Prediction

This matchup presents a contrast in offensive approaches, with the Cubs showcasing a more potent lineup and the Pirates looking to manufacture runs through strategic hitting. Matthew Boyd's experience on the mound will be tested against a determined Pirates offense, while Johan Oviedo aims to contain the Cubs' power hitters and limit their scoring opportunities. Look for a tightly contested game with a slight edge going to the Cubs due to their overall offensive firepower and higher weighted on-base average.

Away: Cubs 4 Home: Pirates 3