2025-10-01 Padres at Cubs Matchup Preview

Starting Pitcher Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease brings a repertoire built around a fastball that he uses to set up his other pitches. Cease's ability to command the strike zone will be key to his success against a Cubs lineup that can be patient at the plate.

Opposing Cease is Chicago Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is known for deception, using a mix of arm angles and pitch movement to keep hitters off balance. His effectiveness hinges on his ability to locate his pitches and avoid leaving them over the heart of the plate. Imanaga's performance this season shows that he is able to be a reliable starter, and the Cubs are looking for Imanaga to keep them in the game.

Padres Hitting Analysis

The Padres' offense showcases some potency, but their overall offensive output places them among the middle of the pack. As a team, their expected weighted on-base average is .326, this shows that they have average plate discipline. Their lineup is built around generating power and driving in runs, but they can be vulnerable to pitchers who can consistently hit their spots and change speeds effectively. Cease is known to utilize speed on his fastball and this may be an edge for the Padres lineup to take advantage of as they look to generate runs in the early innings.

One area where the Padres have struggled is with runners in scoring position. Their ability to capitalize on opportunities will be crucial against Imanaga, who excels at minimizing damage and working out of jams. Their WAR is 19.9, and this indicates they are near the bottom of the league in this regard.

Cubs Hitting Analysis

The Cubs' offense has been more consistent throughout the season. Their expected weighted on-base average of .343 suggests a patient and disciplined approach at the plate, demonstrating a team that works counts and looks for good pitches to hit. They have a higher percentage in this category than the Padres. Imanaga's strength to be able to avoid walks to hitters is a good advantage as the Cubs attempt to manufacture runs against Cease.

The Cubs benefit from some players that can hit for power and get on base. Their WAR is 29.9, this shows that the Cubs are far more effective in this category than the Padres. Against Cease, the Cubs will need to stay disciplined and avoid chasing pitches out of the strike zone. By working counts and getting into favorable hitters' counts, they can increase their chances of getting to Cease and driving him out of the game early.

Intangibles and Prediction

Wrigley Field is a classic ballpark that can be tough on opposing teams. The crowd is always a factor, and the Cubs tend to play well in front of their home fans. In a matchup between two evenly matched teams, the home-field advantage can often make the difference.

Cease is a talented pitcher, but he can be prone to inconsistency. If he is not sharp with his command, the Cubs' patient lineup will make him pay. Imanaga is a crafty veteran who knows how to pitch, but the Padres have the ability to hit the long ball. If he makes mistakes over the plate, they will make him pay.

Ultimately, this game is likely to come down to which team can execute better in key situations. The Cubs have a slight edge due to their more consistent offense and their home-field advantage. However, the Padres are a dangerous team that is capable of beating anyone on any given day.

Final Thoughts

This matchup has the ingredients for a classic October contest, with a blend of pitching prowess and offensive potential on display. Both teams are vying for an advantage, and the game promises to be a hard-fought battle from the first pitch to the last. The Cubs ability to score runs puts them at a slight advantage with Imanaga on the mound.