How to Derive a Sportsbook’s Expected Score

The Sportsbook Has a Score in a Mind for Every Game

If you think that the sportsbooks are just throwing odds out there without an expected score, it would just be unrealistic.  There’s an expected score for every game and it is up to you to see how your score stacks up to that expected score to determine whether the game is worthy of taking any position.  What is the sportsbook expecting in a given sporting event and how does it differ from your expectations?  Are there injuries, weather conditions or suspensions to consider that may have caused bookmakers to have a different line from your expectations or have forced bookmakers to alter their lines?

It is important to know the expected score (implied score) of the sportsbook, so let’s show you how to figure it out!

The Orlando Magic are a 2 point favorite over the Cleveland Cavaliers and the two teams are expected to score 201 1/2 points combined.  So what is the expected/implied total score of this College Basketball game?

Favorite Score =  (Total/2) + (Absolute Spread/2)

Underdog Score = (Total/2) – (Absolute Spread/2)

Now in practice with the above example.

101.75 = (201.5/2) + (2/2)

99.75 = (201.5/2) – (2/2)

The expected score is Orlando 101.75 Cleveland 99.75.  Now, there are no partial points in Basketball, but this is implied score from these odds.

This can be applied to any sport as long as there is a Total and Spread.

Come up with your predicted score and contrast it to the score that the oddsmakers have implied and you will be able to come up with a confidence level.