Reduced Juice and Line Shopping Helps ROI

How Reduced Juice and Line Shopping Improves Your ROI and Returns.

Reduced Juice and Line Shopping shave off the sportsbook’s advantage over you and gives you the opportunity to get better returns on your wagers.  It is a case of how getting every little advantage or break you can over time reaps large rewards.  Small ROIs may seem like small potatoes, but they do not necessarily have to be over the long haul.  Much of sports betting is designed to encourage you take more risk as small wins or percentages just seem unappealing, but if you stay disciplined, the results are quite rewarding.

Now let’s break out the Random Bet Calculator to walk you through some scenarios.

Demonstrating The Impact of Reduced Juice

This is a comparison of a bettor who has three sportsbook choices for a wager and $500 in each of the three sportsbooks.  The spread/total figure is the same across each of these sportsbook choices for this scenario.

• Sportsbook A has the odds set for -110. (52.38% is the breakeven winning rate)
• Sportsbook B has the odds set for -108. (51.92% is the breakeven winning rate)
• Sportsbook C has the odds set for -105. (51.22% is the breakeven winning rate)

Reduced Juice at -105 vs. -110 for spreads and totals drives the breakeven winning rate down 1.16%.

To illustrate the impact of making these wagers over time to show you what is entailed, we use a Random Bet Calculator.  That makes random bets one way or another over the course of a number of bets.

Four different types of players will be placed in this scenario.  A below average bettor, an average bettor, an above-average bettor, and a well above average bettor.  The scenario plays out 500 random bets and 4% of account holdings are used per wager.

Our below average bettor wins 48% of bets.  Not on the good side of the coin flip type of bets that exist with spreads and totals.

At -110 odds, the below average bettor has a Return on Investment of -8.36%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -108 odds, the same below average bettor has a Return on Investment of -7.56%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -105 odds, the same below average bettor has a Return on Investment of -6.29%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

A below average bettor is not going to flat bet every time like someone with any sort of betting discipline, so this is unrealistic.  However, this individual has a better chance of not completely blowing out their account if they are only playing reduced juice lines.

Our average bettor wins 50% of bets.  Every game is a coin flip for this person.  Vigorish should eventually be this person’s downfall.

At -110 odds, the average bettor has a Return on Investment of -4.55%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -108 odds, the same below average bettor has a Return on Investment of -3.7%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -105 odds, the same below average bettor has a Return on Investment of -2.38%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

Notice how the median, mean, and standard deviation rises as the odds improve.  Even more interestingly, an average player who has the vigorish working against them merely making coin flip wagers goes from 93.93% chance of having lost money to 85.19%.  All the bettor had to do was bet with less juice and a flat percentage of the account holding each time.

Our above-average bettor wins 52% of bets.  Every game is a bit better than a coin flip for this person, there is a level of knowledge that is applicable toward sports betting for this individual. Vigorish is holding this person back.

At -110 odds, the above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of -0.73%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -108 odds, the above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of .15%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -105 odds, the above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of 1.53%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

The Median Ending Bankroll kept rising, but what was noticeable is the rate of profitability.  Just betting -110 odds would result in a profitability rate of 24.96% for an above-average bettor.  However, reducing the juice to -105 is a gamechanger.  That brings it down to 44.6% odds of profitability.

Being an above-average sports bettor is very possible.  There’s some effort to it, but those who are disciplined and know how to apply data to the individual games can be profitable.

The last group are the well above-average bettors who win 53.5% of their bets.  This is a distinct minority.  They are not necessarily the professionals who move the lines, but they do well enough that this is not just merely for fun.  The best of the best win between 54-57% of their games on the total and/or against the spread (run lines and puck lines included).  Anyone who is advertising a 60 or 70% win rates are mistakenly including other types of wagers, using a small sample size or are being dishonest.

At -110 odds, the well above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of 2.15%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -108 odds, the well above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of 3.04%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

At -105 odds, the well above-average bettor has a Return on Investment of 4.45%.  How does it play out over 500 wagers?

The well above-average bettor goes from a 50% chance of profitability to a nearly 70% chance of being profitable after 500 wagers by being disciplined with wagers and sticking to Reduced Juice lines.  The median ending bankroll rises 76.66% by dropping those odds.  Within a 70% confidence interval, it is entirely possible for a bettor to double their account holdings.

You Can Accomplish Much the Same with Line Shopping

If you are able to make picks at an above-average or better rate, you can accomplish many of the same sort of effects as if you were getting reduced juice on a spread or a total bet.  You can bet a variety of wagers and find a path toward profitability by simply finding the best odds and lines.

Your necessary winning percentage will certainly vary, but you can accomplish the same sort of results.  If you only like to bet underdogs on the Moneyline, you will find that your necessary winning percentage to come out profitable and with a positive ROI is going to be much lower than someone who is just betting spreads and totals.

You are hunting out the best deal for your pick that you have researched and performed the number-crunching.  Getting the best deal improves your odds of profitability and betting a flat percentage of your account holding will improve your probability of profitability greatly.